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Black gold is king

By all the evidence, and in the face of the sustained decline of the US dollar, OPEC and Russia have already established a de facto peg to the euro for black gold, and they are keeping upward pressure on the price of crude oil so as to maintain their profits in the face of a declining dollar, which they are paid for their product. This is becoming fairly widely known. When the dollar decline gets even steeper with the rise of inflation, the abandonment of petro-dollars in favor of petro-euros will be a "natural" step for oil producers. Such abandonment of the US dollar in the international transactions for black gold, when it finally comes, will deal a terrific blow to the already weak dollar, as well as to the US economy.

But there is another important exit from the US dollar in the works. Japan, China, India and others, who have been buying huge amounts of US debt, and thereby financing the US deficit, are becoming concerned that their holdings of such debt are putting their enormous reserves at risk. They are sending signals that an exit strategy from the dollar is in the making.

A Ruszkik és a Szaud-Arabok feltehetőleg megegyeztek az olajárak magasan tartásában, hogy pénzüknél legyenek a dollár mélyrepülése ellenére is. Amennyiben azonban beindulna az infláció Usákiában, ami még mélyebbre sülyesztené a dollárt, úgy természetes lépés a petro-dollárokról a petro-euróra való áttérés.

Japán, Kína, India és más olyan országok, akik eddig finanszírozták az Usák költségvetési deficitet (értsd: Usákia sok dollárral tartozik ezen országoknak) megpróbálnak kifarolni ebből a dollár-követelésből, mivel a dollár mélyrepülésével elusznának a tartalékaik is.
(megj.: Magyarország ebből a szempontból szerencsés helyzetben van, mi tartozunk sok dollárral Usákiának, és a dollár mélyrepülése Magyarország terheit csökkenti.)

In actuality, it is not likely the two exit strategies from the dollar noted above will really be executed unless a significant event, or set of events, finally forces the hand of OPEC, Russia, and the big Asian economies. This is because all those players also are likely to be harmed in significant ways in any exit from the US dollar. But what we now have, in the new era the international system has already entered, is a set of diplomatic, geopolitical and global economic events and trends that are exercising powerful influence over those players, causing them to consider and to plan for such exits from the dollar in the event that it becomes necessary.

Nem valószínű, hogy a fentiekben bemutatott országoknak érdekük volna kifarolni a dollár-tartalékokból, hiszen szorosak az összefonódások, és ez mindenkire negatív hatással lenne. De a nagyon kényes nemzetközi helyzetre tekintettel mindenki készül a "dollárba vetett hit" megrendülésére.

The foundation, both psychological and logistical, for the exit from the dollar is currently being laid. And US foreign policy and domestic economic policy together have, since September 11, 2001, seriously undermined the traditional international respect and goodwill toward the United States, and the traditional international confidence in the US economy and its currency. This has created the fertile soil in which the seeds of significant independence from the US, in all spheres, are taking root and bearing fruit. This is enormously important.

Usákia a 9/11 utáni politikájával eljátszotta becsületét, és megrendült a bizalom az Usák gazdaság és pénz iránt.

The current domestic security, political, diplomatic, economic and military environment in which the US finds itself - and which include significant and growing international isolation; a military bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan; the approach of an enormously important presidential election; and burdened with massive debt, high energy prices, a very weak dollar, and major economic powers seriously considering an exit strategy from the dollar - all combine to make for very noteworthy susceptibility and vulnerability to terrorist attacks. The US is rapidly becoming a very "desirable" target because its weaknesses and vulnerabilities are reaching a peak. Such groups know that the prime time to strike is quickly arriving, near the election this fall (either shortly before or shortly after), when such attacks are likely to have a profound and damaging effect on the economy and seriously influence the domestic politics of the superpower.

Additionally, the administration of President George W Bush is seen by key leaders around the world as very undesirable, threatening stability and world order by its aggressive policies. We simply cannot dismiss the distinct possibility that certain actions (such as maintaining high crude-oil prices, for example) will be undertaken in an effort to weaken Bush politically ahead of the election this fall. It does not take much of a genius to figure out that the autumn of 2004 will most certainly be a time of greatly increased vulnerability for the United States, both at home and in the world at large.

A dollár kártyavár-szerű összeomlását egy terrorista támadás is kiválthatja. Usákia különösen sebezhető idén ősszel - az elnökválasztás miatt.