http://english.pravda.ru/printed.html?news_id=12490
Russia to run out of oil in six years?! - 04/13/2004 13:40
Taking into account today's tempos of oil extraction, existing oil supply in Russia will last only until 2010, stated head of the department of fuel and energy resources and water works of the Ministry of Russian Natural Resources, Rinat Murzin.
The point is that the level of oil reproduction is significantly lower than the amount of oil that is being extracted. In 2002 oil reserves have increased by 254 million tons with oil extraction of 380 million tons. In 2003, before the initial estimates, oil reserves equaled to 240 million tons, whereas oil extraction has increased up to 421 million tons. The Ministry of Natural Resources blames oil companies for today's situation, since they practically totally refrain from conducting exploration works.
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In the meantime, the Ministry official's statement regarding the fact that 2010 could be marked by major oil crisis isn't taken seriously by the experts, since it all concerns the actual compatibility of today's oilfields and companies' future plans concerning oil extraction. Overall, the situation is such that with today-s tempos of oil extraction, oil workers will be able to hold out for several more decades.
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As far as geological scouting is concerned, analysts assume that no administrative measures could change the existing situation. ?Companies will continue to conduct active geological scouting only in case a proper law of earth's reserves will be passed. Then, the companies will be guaranteed that after investing in geological analysis, they will have a chance to add those resources to their balance sheet and trade them, just as it is done in the world. Today, our companies lack such guarantees,¦ considers the analyst of the ?FINAM¦ company, Marina Lukashova.
Naszóval,a ruszki term. erőforrások minisztériuma szerint ha nem tesznek semmit,akkor 2010-re durva termeléscsökkenés lesz.A jelenlegi telepek nem tudják fentartani a tempot.
(ez egybeesik az ASPO állítáásval)
Namármost,fő problémaként a bürokráciát és a jogi garanciák hiányát nevezte meg,mint hátráltató tényezőt,és az új lelőhelyek kiaknázásátol reméli a kitermelés tempojának növelését.
http://www.worldoil.com/magazine/MAGAZINE_DETAIL.asp?ART_ID=2297&MONTH_YEAR=Apr-2004
Norway and the UK: Promises and problems. Upstream activity on the Norwegian and UK Continental Shelves is dwindling. Fields are depleting, and platforms are shutting down. Exploration decreases, and the discoveries made are of diminishing sizes. Few major development projects remain, and investment levels are falling.
After the UK, Norway has matured and shows no signs of further growth, due more to politics than geology. Both countries need to stimulate increased exploration; develop new, smaller fields linked to infrastructure; and increase field output. Industry executives claim that Norway's high petroleum tax rate is the major reason why oil companies do not consider many projects to be sufficiently profitable. Although Norway's oil output will decline (unless industry incentives improve), natural gas is set to increase further.
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Unless investment increases and exploration rebounds (followed by field development), reserves will not be renewed. In turn, output will gradually decline, negatively affecting Oslo's revenues, as well as Europe's degree of self-sufficiency. The case for reform in Norway is compelling.
Norway aims to capture economic rent from large oil fields, taxing net income at 78% with six-year depreciation. The absence of a ring fence means that new prospect development costs can be offset against current revenues, favoring incumbent firms and capital-rich newcomers that can buy into producing assets vs. smaller, capital-poor companies and marginal prospects. Britain, with a 40% corporate income tax and immediate depreciation, is more attractive to newcomers, but the ring fence deters marginal prospect investment. For both countries, what is not found and developed cannot be produced and taxed.
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Interest in high-cost, high-tax Norwegian prospects has waned. Norway's maturity as an oil province is due as much to rigorous regulatory and fiscal conditions as to geology (measured by costs and field sizes). Through the 1990s, the average, weighted production cost, including development, operations and abandonment, declined in both countries. Norway's cost advantage stayed constant, thanks to larger fields, indicating the importance of field size in economics. For nearly all prospects, total production costs are below $12/bbl, and operating costs tend to be below $5/bbl.
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In the UK, where officials face declining output, the priority is to stimulate activity through such means as more favorable licensing terms in offshore, deepwater areas west of the Shetlands. Elsewhere, new entrants are picking up assets sold by the majors, so future drilling prospects could be better than expected. The ambition is to sustain annual investment at £3 billion and combined output at 3 million boed, to prolong self-sufficiency.
Anglia és Norvégia hasonló cípöben jár mint oroszó.A termelés angliában már csökken,Norvégiában pedig csökkeni fog.A termelés szinten tartására/bövítésére a gyógyírt a beruházás ösztönzésében,a probléma gyökerét pedig a magas adókban és a szabályozás rossz voltában látják.
Szorgalmazzák a kisebb mezők kitermelését,illetve a nagy mélységű kitermelést.
Mindezek melett a jelenlegi kitermelési ktsg 12$,ami előrevetíti hogy milyen ár melett éri majd meg a mélyebb területek kiaknázása....
(továbbá,hogy mit kezd magával a norvég és britt kormány olajbevételek nélkül).
