Natehát,duskáljunk az infokban,melyet a net biztosít számunkra.És értelmezzük azokat józan belátásunk szerint.

http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/Business2.asp?ArticleID=116311

Arab gas consumption set to overtake oil demand in 2005

By Nadim Kawach

Bureau Chief

Abu Dhabi: Gas consumption in the Arab world is set to overtake oil demand in 2005 as many regional countries are switching to the cleaner source of energy in power generation and other sectors, according to official forecasts.

The bulk of the demand growth will be recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other countries with relatively high energy consumption and steady growth in their industrial sector, the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (Oapec) said in a report on future energy consumption in the region.

Between 2005 and 2015, consumption of oil products, excluding those used in power generation, is projected to grow by around 1.6 per cent from 3.4 million barrels per day to 3.9 million bpd, the 10-nation group said.

Gas demand is expected to surge by 3.5 per cent from 3.5 million bpd equivalent to around 4.9 million bpd/e in the same period.

Total energy consumption, including oil, gas, coal and other sources not used in power generation, is forecast to grow by 2.6 per cent from 7.1 million bpd in 2005 to eight million in 2010 and nearly 9.19 million bpd in 2015.

"Expectations are that the share of the gas in the Arab energy market will rise from 48.9 per cent in 2005 to 53.3 per cent in 2015 to overtake the oil share, which will decline from 47.4 per cent to 42.8 per cent," Oapec said.

"The other energy sources, including coal, wind and hydroelectricity, will remain almost unchanged, with their market share standing at 3.7-4 per cent."

Tehát az arab államok csökkenteni akarják az olaj,és növelni a földgázfelhasználásukat,ami logikus lépés tekintve hogy az olajat sokkal könyebb nagy távra szállítani,így a földgáz helyben felhasználása jelentös töbletpénzt hozhat

According to the report, the industrial sector in the region is the main consumer of energy, with a share of 35.2 per cent. The communication sector ranks second, with a consumption of 24.4 per cent in 2002.

"Consumption of oil, gas and other sources in the Arab world is influenced by economic growth, energy policies, consumption in previous years, expansion of some sectors and prices of energy. As a result, growth in consumption in some members is much higher than growth in other members."

In a separate study last year, Oapec said Arab states need to invest at least $100 billion to expand their oil and gas sectors to face growing demand in the local and foreign markets.

It noted that the bulk of the expansions would take place in the Gulf, which controls more than 60 per cent of the world's total recoverable oil reserves and 40 per cent of the global gas wealth.

The projects along with expansions in other producing countries will push up Opec's sustainable output capacity from around 30 million bpd in 2000 to 38.4 million in 2010, to 44.8 million in 2010 and 60.2 million in 2020.

A breakdown showed the UAE's capacity will climb from 2.5 million bpd in 2000 to three million bpd in 2005, to 3.7 million in 2010 and 5.1 million in 2020.

Saudi Arabia will lift capacity from 9.4 million bpd to 12.5 million then to 14.6 million and 22.1 million in the same period.

Nos,tehát a 100 milliárd $ beruházs kellene az elkövetkezőkben.Ráadásul gyakorlatilag meg akarják töbszörözni az olajtermelésüket,miközben az elmult ídőszakban az oroszok pont azért tudták felfuttatni az olajtermelésüket,mert az arabok nem tudtak elég olajat termelni a világnak.
Így a 15 év alatt 2*-es termelésnövelés enyhén szólva kétséges....

A következő cikk az olaj és ház journalbol van.

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?Section=OnlineArticles&ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=202061
Analyst: Oil shortfalls to drive price increases, dictate alternatives

By OGJ editors

HOUSTON, Apr. 2 -- The world is facing a future of oil price increases that will occur sooner than many people now believe, concluded Canterbury, England,-based energy analysts Douglas-Westwood Ltd. in the third edition (2004-50) of its World Oil Supply Report published Wednesday.

Leading to that judgment are three fundamental findings study author Michael R. Smith of EnergyFiles Ltd. said were "strongly evident" from the study: increasing oil demand coupled with falling reserves and a decline in discovery.

Declining reserves
The unprecedented rate of global oil reserves drawdown will be a major factor, Smith said. Although 99 countries have or can produce significant volumes of oil, 52, including the US, are already well past their peak (greater than 5 years), while another 16, including the UK, Norway, Australia, and China are at peak or will reach it soon, the analyst said. The remainder will peak within the next 25 years, he added.

The report, Douglas-Westwood said, "further adds to the debate begun by Shell's downgrading of oil reserves," which was followed by a number of other oil companies' doing the same (For an analysis of Shell's reserves picture, see OGJ, Apr. 5, 2004, p. 43).

tehát már az iparban is kezdik elismerni azt,hogy a világ kőolajkútjai száradnak kifelé
"Perhaps all of Shell's 'lost' reserves may eventually be converted back to proven, but the problems of Shell and other oil companies do raise questions as to the present day economic value of global reserves and the validity and soundness of processes to estimate them," Smith said. "Cuts in oil companies' proven reserves may indicate new shortages in underreported volumes that were once used to counterbalance overreported volumes," Smith said.

Iraq and OPEC
Smith forecast a short period of oversupply by the former Soviet Union and from deep waters, but said that to offset declines elsewhere, large capital investments would be required within OPEC countries after 2008 to rapidly increase production by at least 1-2 million b/d annually. "It is likely that by then the world will begin to see sustained growth in oil prices," he reported.
tehát kemény befektetésekre van szükség a termelés felfuttatásához.Ha ez lehetséáges egyáltalán...
"OPEC cohesion continues, and it is assumed that Iraqi will continue to be a member of OPEC and that its output ultimately will combine with theirs.

"Iraq is probably the most underexplored country in the world in relation to its productive potential. Once stability is achieved, a field development program must begin with very large infrastructure projects and huge investments, said Smith. "However, whether companies will be willing to take on the political and geological risk, remains to be seen."

Iraq is likely to achieve 2.5-3 million b/d of oil by the end of 2005, and maintain a level near this within OPEC for 3-4 years, before ramping up output, he said.

"Within 5 years the share of production that OPEC provides can increase once again without reducing the price."

Rising demand
However, "by 2008 all OPEC countries will need to begin to increase production as much as they can to meet even modest demand growth," the analyst said. As reserves dwindle, oil demand continues to soar.

Global demand in 2003, led by China, grew by 2.6%, the analyst said. China's surge in oil-fired power generation capacity and a 75% jump in sales of passenger vehicles resulted in its 10% demand increase. Although unsustainable, China's demand growth is nonetheless expected to remain the highest in the world, Smith said.

"When you consider that the number of cars on British roads increased from around 2 million in 1950 to 25 million now, and revenue-passenger kilometers on the world's air transport has tripled from 1 trillion to 3 trillion since 1978, it stands to reason that economic growth in China will have a dramatic effect on automobile and airline oil usage," he said.
tehát kína rá lesz cuppanva az olajra,és egyre nagyobb mértékben ahogy gazdasága növekszik...És ahogy a kínaiak is autót és nyugati életmódot akarnak
Declining discovery rates
Douglas-Westwood said that, in forecasting the likely future oil production profile of all existing and potential oil-producing countries, the study considered both known and 'yet-to-find' oil, condensate, and natural gas liquid resources onshore and offshore, in deep and shallow water, and the use of conventional and unconventional extraction methods.

The author drew from the EnergyFiles Ltd. oil and gas supply information system to evaluate regional and global oil production limits and to define the year in which oil supplies would no longer be able to meet a given global demand.

Smith said the 'glut' of oil commentators predicted through 2003-04 failed to materialize. . . . Projects have been delayed, and opportunities are receding for significantly increasing output outside of deep waters or OPEC countries. "Only Russia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan can truly lay claim to significant conventional oil reserves, and projects here have been very slow to get off the ground," he said.

Although discoveries continued in deep and ultradeep Gulf of Mexico and Angola waters, no new oil provinces were identified last year. Deep waters currently are responsible for only 4% of production and are expected to reach only 10% of total capacity, the report indicated.

"The declining oil discovery rate is a signal that opportunities are limited and that production must decline in the future," Smith said. "The question is when?"

Smith said that, beyond 2020, the world's known and estimated yet-to-find reserves and resources could not match even the current level of production. And just a 1% growth in global economic activity would increase demand to the point that a production peak could occur as early as 2016. "Although the response will be complex, this will ultimately result in a sustained increase in oil prices."

Rapid action needed
In order to face a world with higher energy costs, consuming nations, users, suppliers, and service corporations must take rapid action now, the author stressed. The first step is to understand the data and determine just where the sources of the world's oil will be over the next 20 years or so. The second step is to consider alternatives, many of which are expensive, environmentally questionable, and still are ineffective as oil substitutes because of transportation issues.

"All governments must review energy supply security now and develop policies and budgets consistent with impending shortfalls in oil supply in the coming years," said Smith. "Japan and China are competing for Russian oil [while] a number of countries in Western Europe are already facing up to the prospect of energy supply shortfalls and [are] beginning major programs to encourage renewables. However Europe, Asia, and North America will need a lot more than renewable energy to overcome the long-term supply squeeze. Furthermore, alternative transport fuels such as hydrogen made from natural gas would probably require at least 15-20 years to bring on stream fully.

"Ultimately oil companies and countries alike must cope with declining production and locate and compete for new energy supplies by diversifying, increasing imports, or developing indigenous alternatives," Smith continued. "When and to what extent they can do this—and the degree to which the exporting countries can and will rapidly increase oil and gas production to meet new external demands—are fundamental to global economic health."

Tehát rososzó helyzete egyre inkább felértékelődik.Kína és japán gáz és olajügyben egyre inkább rá lesz utlva...
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8209-1059864,00.html

Shell's Russian gas project shoots $2bn over budget

SHELL’s troubled management faces new questions over internal accounting procedures today, as The Times reveals that one of the oil major’s key gas projects has spiralled more than $2 billion (£1.09 billion) over budget in just two months.

Sources close to Shell’s Sakhalin-2 natural gas development in Eastern Siberia have confirmed that the total cost of building Russia’s largest energy project is now more than 20 per cent in excess of the $10 billion budget presented to analysts in February.

Russia’s first liquefied natural gas project (LNG), Sakhalin was lauded as the biggest ever foreign investment in Russia and was granted the privilege of a special ring-fenced tax structure, one of a very few such agreements sanctioned by the Kremlin. Contracts have been signed with Japanese power generators, including Tokyo Electric, for the 17 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Piltun and Lunskoye fields, north of Sakhalin island

Tehát japán egyre inkább ráál az usa energiahordozóira.A fenti egyben példa arra,hogy mire lehet számítani ha LNG forrásokbol probálja meg az usa potolni az olcsó földgázutánpotlását...

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/04/05/046.html

Russian plans to build more than $20 billion of oil and gas pipelines supplying China, South Korea and Japan may help Asian refiners cut oil bills that are as much as $10 billion a year more than they would pay in Europe or the U.S.
...
Russia is vying with Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer, to supply to China and Japan, the world's No.2 and No.3 consumers. Russian output grew 12 percent in the first two months of this year to 8.9 million barrels a day against the Saudis' 8.4 million. Saudi Arabia can produce as much as 10 million barrels a day, with more than 40 percent of output going to Asian buyers
...
Russia and other non-OPEC producers such as Kazakhstan have been taking market share from members of the oil group as it cuts output. Kazakhstan's oil production has risen 10 percent to 965,000 barrels a day.
...
China, which last year overtook Japan as an oil consumer, may boost crude imports by more than 9.8 percent this year to ease domestic fuel shortages, the government said on March 24.

És végül az új ASPO newletterből...

Aramco announced that it is using multiple branched horizontal wells in Ghawar, its largest field, to hold production as high as possible at the expense of accelerating depletion. The poor old lady really is coming to the end of her life, and she may be spared any lengthy terminal suffering, as these wells die overnight when the water reaches them.
Engineers familiar with the field explain its unusual features. A tar deposit has formed at the oil water contact, which impedes the natural water drive in the east, explaining the practice of massive water injection above the tar mat along the periphery. There is an active water drive on the west flank, giving a tilted oil-water contact. The engineers think that a recovery factor of 50-55% is the best to be hoped for from any traditional extraction process.

Naszóval Ghawar,ami a szaudiak termelésének fleét adja,már erősen döglödik.Uygan névleg még sok olaj van benne,de a nyomást biztosító víz egyre nagyobb aránya miatt a kutakbol egy ídő után nem olaj,hanem víz fog csorogni(és mivel a talajba tengervízet nyomtak bele a nyomsá fentartása érdekében,ez az olajos-sós-vízes trutyi nem sok mindenre használható...)

Mindenesetre eléggéoptimista kijelentésnek tűnik,hogy tartani tudják a tervezett fejlsztésbővítést,inkább valószínű hogy jó ha a termelési szintüjekt tudják tartani.
Alapvetően,ha tehetik,akkor miért nem radirozták le a ruszkikat a 12$-es kitermelési költségükkel,amikor nekik csak pár $ a költségük?Ha duplájára nyomták volna a termelést,még 12$-es olajárnál is meg lett volna a bevételük,de a ruszkik akkor már megdöglöttek volna.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1185292,00.html
Bush attacks environment 'scare stories'

Secret email gives advice on denying climate change

Antony Barnett in New York
Sunday April 4, 2004
The Observer

George W. Bush's campaign workers have hit on an age-old political tactic to deal with the tricky subject of global warming - deny, and deny aggressively.
The Observer has obtained a remarkable email sent to the press secretaries of all Republican congressmen advising them what to say when questioned on the environment in the run-up to November's election. The advice: tell them everything's rosy.

It tells them how global warming has not been proved, air quality is 'getting better', the world's forests are 'spreading, not deadening', oil reserves are 'increasing, not decreasing', and the 'world's water is cleaner and reaching more people'.

Jó őreg kampánytrükk.
"Atlantisz nem fog elsülyedni..."