király linkoldal.

http://www.greatchange.org/ov-thomson,convince_sheet.html

"Gas will peak in 2020": Problem with gas is that it has a different depletion profile with a long plateau defined by market and pipeline. When the plateau ends it ends abruptly. I think the US is now on the edge of this cliff." Colin Campbell, private E-mail May-June 2000. Brian Fleay, at http://www.hubbertpeak.com/gas/ "The two largest resources not yet in production are in the Sahara and Niger Delta. It can be supposed that gas pipelines will be built soon from the Middle East to Europe and the Indian subcontinent, so that production will rise in steps as the linkages are made. If one assumes a 1% increase over the next 5 years followed by a 4% increase thereafter as oil becomes expensive, the midpoint of depletion (more or less the gas "Hubbert Peak") would come around 2018 at about 120 Tcf/annum. Gas reserves are much more difficult to assess than oil, and much more susceptible to economic factors, the most important of which is transport (pipelines/LNG). The USA is more depleted than anywhere else. Any proposal to use natural gas as the primary substitute for oil in the transportation sector represents at best a temporary solution, and at worst a distraction of human industrial resources (consuming time and capital, while oil and gas remain economic, to produce a fleet which will then soon become obsolete, rather than using the remaining economic reserves to create a lasting solution), as well as a waste of natural resources of great potential value to future generations."