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kustor
 2012.05.03
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"I don't believe it.
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It makes no sense."
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"There is something so strange."
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00:01:03,063 --> 00:01:07,107
"Perhaps you can suggest
some fantastic explanation."
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"Couldn't it be this sort of thing?"
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00:01:19,662 --> 00:01:22,623
He turned the drawing around.
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"Yes," she said,
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"that is what I mean."
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This was the first explanation
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00:01:36,638 --> 00:01:39,056
of the splitting of the atom.
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00:01:54,405 --> 00:01:57,574
Robert Oppenheimer said, "Impossible,"
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but within 15 minutes he decided
it was real.
13
00:02:01,621 --> 00:02:03,455
He realized it would release
14
00:02:03,623 --> 00:02:06,041
a great amount of energy,
15
00:02:06,209 --> 00:02:08,377
that you could generate power
16
00:02:08,545 --> 00:02:10,546
and make bombs.
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00:02:16,594 --> 00:02:18,428
Within a week
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00:02:18,596 --> 00:02:21,598
on Oppenheimer's blackboard
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00:02:21,766 --> 00:02:24,768
there was a crude drawing of the bomb.
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00:02:32,068 --> 00:02:34,236
Enrico Fermi stood in his office
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00:02:34,404 --> 00:02:36,864
and looked out over Manhattan.
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00:02:39,742 --> 00:02:42,870
He cupped his hands
to the size of a tennis ball.
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00:02:44,998 --> 00:02:48,041
"A little bomb like that," he said,
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"and it would all disappear. "
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00:04:12,418 --> 00:04:14,336
There is no doubt in my mind-
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00:04:14,504 --> 00:04:17,089
if terrorists had acquired
a nuclear weapon,
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00:04:17,257 --> 00:04:19,591
they would not have hesitated to use it.
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00:04:34,857 --> 00:04:36,984
So I guess the question is,
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"Could they ever get one?"
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00:05:03,553 --> 00:05:07,055
Al-Qaeda is determined
to acquire nuclear weapons
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00:05:07,223 --> 00:05:10,058
and to use them if they get them.
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00:05:10,226 --> 00:05:12,477
In the early '90s they tried to buy
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00:05:12,645 --> 00:05:14,896
highly-enriched uranium in the Sudan.
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00:05:15,064 --> 00:05:17,733
They got scammed.
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00:05:17,900 --> 00:05:20,360
Just prior to the 9/11 attacks,
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00:05:20,528 --> 00:05:22,904
we do know that Osama Bin Laden
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00:05:23,072 --> 00:05:25,032
and his lieutenant Zawahiri
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00:05:25,199 --> 00:05:27,617
sat down
with two Pakistani nuclear scientists
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00:05:27,785 --> 00:05:31,121
and discussed nuclear weapons.
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00:05:32,915 --> 00:05:35,542
Before releasing the sarin gas
in the Tokyo subway,
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00:05:35,710 --> 00:05:38,337
the Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo
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00:05:38,504 --> 00:05:42,090
attempted to acquire
a nuclear bomb in Russia.
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00:05:42,258 --> 00:05:45,177
They bought a sheep farm
in Australia
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to mine uranium
to build their own bomb.
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00:05:50,433 --> 00:05:53,101
The objective of Al-Qaeda
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00:05:53,269 --> 00:05:55,562
is to, quote,
"kill four million Americans,
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including two million children. "
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This is, in his calculation,
what's required
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00:06:01,069 --> 00:06:03,278
to balance the scales ofjustice.
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00:06:05,198 --> 00:06:07,032
He takes various incidents,
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00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:10,535
from Shatila to the war in Iraq,
52
00:06:10,703 --> 00:06:12,829
and counts up the body count and says,
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"That's how many people
we're out- four million. "
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You're not gonna get
to kill four million people
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by hijacking airplanes
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and crashing them into buildings.
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Actually, I'm not that worried
about nuclear weapons.
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It's not one of my main worries.
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I do not worry about nuclear weapons.
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Isn't everybody worried
about nuclear war?
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That's a stupid answer, right?
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I don't know.
It just has never been
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something that I've actually had
to think about in my everyday life.
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It might, you know, get on your conscience
for a couple days maybe,
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and then it kind ofjust disappears.
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I don't think anybody is
going to use in this day and age-
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ridiculous even to think about it.
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What can you do? Nothing.
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At the end of the day, it's one button
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and there's gonna be a big mess
at the end of it, isn't there?
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Somebody's gonna make
a mistake one day
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and we're all gonna suffer for it.
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There are three ways
to acquire a nuclear weapon:
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you could steal a bomb;
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you could buy a bomb;
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and you could build a bomb.
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Of all the things I learned
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after 9/11 about terrorism intent,
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the most startling discovery
for me personally
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was realizing that they were
trying to build a bomb.
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00:08:08,988 --> 00:08:11,698
The hardest part
of making a nuclear bomb
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is getting the material-
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the highly-enriched
uranium or plutonium.
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00:08:17,997 --> 00:08:20,415
Many countries
have these materials,
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and often they are poorly guarded.
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00:08:26,130 --> 00:08:27,964
But if I were a terrorist
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intending to build a nuclear bomb
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and I wanted to blow up a major city,
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I would look to the countries
of the former Soviet Union.
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There have been many cases
involving the theft
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of highly-enriched
uranium or plutonium.
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And every time there has been
a black-market seizure
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of stolen H.E.U. or plutonium
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and they were able to track it
back to its source,
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it came from Russia.
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There was a case
at a Russian naval base
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in the early 1990s.
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One of the naval personnel
told a relative of his
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where the highly-enriched
uranium at this base was.
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00:09:06,504 --> 00:09:09,005
This relative walked
through a gaping hole
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in a security fence,
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walked up to what you
and I would consider to be a tool shed,
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snapped the padlock with an iron bar.
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He set off no alarm.
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He was not detected at all.
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The Russian military prosecutor
in that case said, quote,
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"Potatoes were guarded better. "
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At a facility called Luch
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where they fabricate fuel
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made from highly-enriched uranium
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there was a worker there who knew
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that as long as the output
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was within about 3% of the input,
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they figured it was
normal losses to waste
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and they didn't bother
to investigate.
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So he kept stealing
small amounts of highly-enriched uranium
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day after day
over a long period of time.
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Eventually he stole a kilogram and a half
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of 90% enriched
highly-enriched uranium.
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He set off no alarms.
No one noticed.
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He had friends
who were making their living
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stealing car batteries.
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And they said,
"Maybe the guy in Moscow
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who buys our stolen car batteries
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will buy your stolen uranium. "
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So they went down
to the train station together
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and the police came and arrested
the car battery thieves
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and he got arrested
along with them.
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That's the only way
he was ever caught.
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We have cases in which
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people from the Russian nuclear arsenal
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were selling material
and they were captured.
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We have cases in which people
from Russian nuclear labs
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were selling material.
They were captured.
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Almost all of those cases-
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until the material was seized,
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it had never been noticed
to be missing.
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00:11:09,669 --> 00:11:12,671
All the black-market seizures
that I'm aware of
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were serendipitous.
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They were caught by luck.
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So that we don't know
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whether it's the iceberg
or the tip of the iceberg.
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Once you've managed
to acquire highly-enriched uranium,
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you'd need to smuggle it
out of the country.
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Georgia is located
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along Russia's southern border-
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a natural corridor.
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00:11:50,668 --> 00:11:52,961
And things like
highly-enriched uranium
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could be smuggled
through such a place
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on their way to Azerbaijan,
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Iraq, Iran,
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Turkmenistan, Afghanistan
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and so on and so forth.
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The Georgians invented a so-called
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man of Turkish nationality
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who said he was a Muslim man
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representing a serious organization.
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Oleg Khintsagov believed
he was selling
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highly-enriched uranium
to make an atomic weapon
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to terrorists.
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If a truck driver can get a hold of it,
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a small time hustler
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who just wanted
to become a rich guy,
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imagine what professionals
could have done-
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real professionals
with an ideology,
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with an agenda, with brains.
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Once you've moved
the highly-enriched uranium,
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you could use any number of ports
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in the Middle East
or the Mediterranean
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to ship the H.E.U. to your destination.
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00:15:59,416 --> 00:16:02,835
Smuggling highly-enriched
uranium into the United States
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is pretty straightfoward.
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00:16:10,469 --> 00:16:14,597
Lead pipe
will shield the H.E.U.
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00:16:14,765 --> 00:16:17,058
The detector would have to be
within a few inches
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00:16:17,226 --> 00:16:19,560
to pick up any radiation.
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And then hide it
amongst everyday goods.
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00:16:31,573 --> 00:16:34,117
100 Ibs of highly-enriched uranium
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00:16:34,284 --> 00:16:38,037
is smaller than a football.
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00:16:38,205 --> 00:16:42,125
It would fit in a six-pack
of beer cans.
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00:16:45,254 --> 00:16:47,296
100,000 shipping containers
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00:16:47,464 --> 00:16:49,966
go to the United States every day.
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00:16:52,803 --> 00:16:56,305
Every way
that drugs come to New York City
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would be the same way
you would imagine
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00:16:58,475 --> 00:17:01,102
highly-enriched uranium coming.
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00:17:04,815 --> 00:17:08,234
If you have any doubt
about the ability of Al-Qaeda
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00:17:08,402 --> 00:17:11,863
to bring highly-enriched
uranium into the U.S.,
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00:17:12,031 --> 00:17:15,074
they could always hide it
in a bale of marijuana.
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00:17:37,014 --> 00:17:39,891
Terrorism is just one threat-
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the deliberate threat.
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00:17:46,190 --> 00:17:49,108
But there is also
the unintentional threat
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of a nuclear detonation
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00:17:51,278 --> 00:17:53,863
by accident, by error
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00:17:54,031 --> 00:17:56,324
or by misjudgment.
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00:18:26,396 --> 00:18:28,147
We'd like to think
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00:18:28,315 --> 00:18:30,274
the U.S. military or other militaries
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00:18:30,442 --> 00:18:32,985
that control nuclear weapons
are perfect organizations.
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00:18:33,153 --> 00:18:35,154
They will never fail.
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00:18:38,325 --> 00:18:42,161
We expect them
to have 100% reliability.
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00:18:42,329 --> 00:18:45,414
But even the well-disciplined,
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00:18:45,582 --> 00:18:48,376
very professional
United States military
201
00:18:48,544 --> 00:18:52,088
made very serious mistakes
with nuclear weapons.
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00:18:58,178 --> 00:19:00,555
An atomic bomb
breaks loose from a mounting shackle
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00:19:00,722 --> 00:19:03,558
in a B47 jet over Florence,
South Carolina,
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00:19:03,725 --> 00:19:05,518
causing a sensational freak accident.
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00:19:05,686 --> 00:19:10,022
A B52 bomber was loaded
with nuclear weapons by mistake.
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00:19:10,190 --> 00:19:12,608
An American warplane flew
1500 miles across the nation,
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00:19:12,776 --> 00:19:15,236
we're told, with six nuclear
warheads onboard.
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00:19:15,404 --> 00:19:17,363
And nobody knew-
not the aircraft's crew,
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00:19:17,531 --> 00:19:20,116
not the commanders
on the ground.
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00:19:20,284 --> 00:19:24,120
We've had B52s explode in the air
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00:19:24,288 --> 00:19:26,581
during a refueling mission,
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00:19:26,748 --> 00:19:29,208
causing the four
thermonuclear weapons
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00:19:29,376 --> 00:19:31,836
to fall onto Spanish territory
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00:19:32,004 --> 00:19:34,005
and into the Mediterranean.
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00:19:34,173 --> 00:19:36,507
A B52 bomber
carrying nuclear weapons
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00:19:36,675 --> 00:19:39,051
crashed near a U.S.
air force base in Greenland,
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00:19:39,219 --> 00:19:44,182
scattering deadly plutonium
over the ice cap.
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00:19:44,349 --> 00:19:45,725
In 1960,
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00:19:45,893 --> 00:19:47,852
a BOMARC air defense missile exploded,
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00:19:48,020 --> 00:19:49,979
melting the nuclear warhead.
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00:19:50,147 --> 00:19:52,064
In 1968,
the U.S.S. Scorpion sank
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00:19:52,232 --> 00:19:54,692
400 miles southwest
of the Azores.
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00:19:54,860 --> 00:19:58,154
The nuclear weapons onboard
were never found.
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00:19:58,322 --> 00:20:01,908
A B47 bomber disappeared
over the Mediterranean.
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00:20:02,075 --> 00:20:05,411
The nuclear weapons aboard
were never located.
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00:20:05,579 --> 00:20:07,413
In 1959,
an aircraft crashed
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00:20:07,581 --> 00:20:09,415
near Whidbey Island, Washington.
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00:20:09,583 --> 00:20:12,501
The nuclear depth charges
were not recovered.
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00:20:12,669 --> 00:20:15,296
A Skyhawk strike aircraft
carrying a nuclear weapon
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00:20:15,464 --> 00:20:18,341
rolled off an aircraft carrier
in the Sea of Japan.
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00:20:18,508 --> 00:20:21,135
The weapon
was never recovered.
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00:20:21,303 --> 00:20:23,137
There are many ways in which
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00:20:23,305 --> 00:20:25,306
efforts to make a system
more reliable
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00:20:25,474 --> 00:20:27,892
actually backfire
and make it less reliable.
235
00:20:28,060 --> 00:20:31,604
Sometimes we add
a redundant system.
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00:20:31,772 --> 00:20:33,773
We add backup systems
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00:20:33,941 --> 00:20:35,775
so that if one fails,
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00:20:35,943 --> 00:20:38,110
another can take its place.
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00:20:42,824 --> 00:20:47,703
But complexity is
the enemy of reliability,
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00:20:47,871 --> 00:20:50,414
because as you add systems
and make them more complex,
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00:20:50,582 --> 00:20:53,334
it's harder to understand
all the potential interactions.
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00:21:07,432 --> 00:21:11,686
It's that unlikely, bizarre interaction
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00:21:11,853 --> 00:21:13,980
where one person interacts with another
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00:21:14,147 --> 00:21:15,982
in a way that wasn't anticipated
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00:21:16,149 --> 00:21:19,694
or one backup system
interacts with another
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00:21:19,861 --> 00:21:22,196
in ways that you can't
figure out ahead of time
247
00:21:22,364 --> 00:21:23,823
and therefore can't plan around-
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00:21:23,991 --> 00:21:25,574
those are what cause the problems.
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00:21:25,742 --> 00:21:29,870
In 1961, a B52 broke apart in midair
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00:21:30,038 --> 00:21:32,415
over Goldsboro, North Carolina,
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00:21:32,582 --> 00:21:34,792
causing two nuclear bombs to fall.
252
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:37,211
One parachute functioned properly,
253
00:21:37,379 --> 00:21:41,632
and that bomb survived
with minor damage.
254
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:43,968
The other parachute failed to open.
255
00:21:44,136 --> 00:21:45,803
When that bomb hit,
256
00:21:45,971 --> 00:21:47,888
five of six safety devices
malfunctioned.
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00:21:48,056 --> 00:21:52,143
A single switch prevented
a nuclear explosion.
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00:21:55,022 --> 00:21:56,605
When I worked in the Pentagon,
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00:21:56,773 --> 00:21:58,899
I believed that the likelihood
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00:21:59,067 --> 00:22:01,235
of a nuclear weapons accident
261
00:22:01,403 --> 00:22:04,155
in the United States occurring
was very low.
262
00:22:04,323 --> 00:22:06,198
I still believe that.
263
00:22:06,366 --> 00:22:10,661
But low-probability events happen.
264
00:22:10,829 --> 00:22:12,997
They happen all the time.
265
00:22:13,165 --> 00:22:16,876
There's a first time
in history for every event.
266
00:22:17,044 --> 00:22:19,045
Eventually
267
00:22:19,212 --> 00:22:21,630
those low-probability events
will occur.
268
00:22:29,056 --> 00:22:31,349
Was that supposed to happen?
- No.
269
00:23:06,593 --> 00:23:09,261
I could probably list
every country in the world today.
270
00:23:11,139 --> 00:23:12,932
How many countries
do I think have nuclear weapons?
271
00:23:13,100 --> 00:23:14,975
List them?
- China.
272
00:23:15,143 --> 00:23:18,187
I don't think I signed up for this.
- Russia.
273
00:23:20,899 --> 00:23:22,024
U.K., maybe?
274
00:23:23,026 --> 00:23:24,151
America, I'm guessing.
275
00:23:25,278 --> 00:23:27,405
Oh, us?
Oh, well, that was a given.
276
00:23:27,572 --> 00:23:29,365
France.
- Germany?
277
00:23:29,533 --> 00:23:31,409
Australia?
- Canada? I don't think Canada.
278
00:23:31,576 --> 00:23:32,576
No?
279
00:23:34,371 --> 00:23:35,371
Japan?
280
00:23:37,082 --> 00:23:38,499
No, not Japan.
281
00:23:38,667 --> 00:23:40,126
There's more.
I know there's more.
282
00:23:40,293 --> 00:23:42,753
Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia.
283
00:23:44,464 --> 00:23:47,299
All other countries
that's not telling us- they have 'em.
284
00:23:47,467 --> 00:23:48,759
Afghanistan?
285
00:23:48,927 --> 00:23:50,845
North Korea?
- North Korea.
286
00:23:51,012 --> 00:23:52,805
Do they?
Okay, North Korea.
287
00:23:54,724 --> 00:23:56,058
Who knows?
Who knows exactly?
288
00:23:56,226 --> 00:23:57,309
I don't know. I'm out.
289
00:23:58,687 --> 00:23:59,687
I think that's it.
290
00:23:59,855 --> 00:24:01,021
Yeah.
- Yeah.
291
00:24:04,818 --> 00:24:07,111
After the United States detonated
292
00:24:07,279 --> 00:24:09,655
the first atomic bomb
in the New Mexico desert,
293
00:24:09,823 --> 00:24:12,825
nuclear technology
began to spread
294
00:24:12,993 --> 00:24:15,536
and other countries
began to acquire
295
00:24:15,704 --> 00:24:17,955
their own nuclear bombs.
296
00:24:32,179 --> 00:24:35,681
Great credit is due
for this mighty British achievement,
297
00:24:35,849 --> 00:24:37,641
for it seems
298
00:24:37,809 --> 00:24:39,935
that by the possession
of such deadly weapons
299
00:24:40,103 --> 00:24:44,064
peace can be maintained
in this troubled world.
300
00:24:48,028 --> 00:24:49,862
At Reggane, deep in the Sahara,
301
00:24:50,030 --> 00:24:52,072
France goes foward
with the detonation
302
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,158
of her first atomic bomb.
303
00:24:54,326 --> 00:24:56,494
The explosion carries France
a step further
304
00:24:56,661 --> 00:24:58,496
towards General de Gaulle's dream
305
00:24:58,663 --> 00:25:01,248
of national glory restored.
306
00:25:06,505 --> 00:25:10,132
This is a gigantic success
of Mao Zedong's thought.
307
00:25:10,300 --> 00:25:13,219
Our nation's first nuclear test
308
00:25:13,386 --> 00:25:15,930
surpasses the levels
of the first nuclear tests
309
00:25:16,097 --> 00:25:18,682
of the United States,
Britain and France.
310
00:25:18,850 --> 00:25:22,019
Their criminal attempt to block
and prevent our nation's people
311
00:25:22,187 --> 00:25:24,230
from grasping nuclear weapons
312
00:25:24,397 --> 00:25:27,024
have been thoroughly smashed.
313
00:25:54,469 --> 00:25:57,096
Pakistan, which has
often been at war with India,
314
00:25:57,264 --> 00:25:59,223
hinted it now might have to join
315
00:25:59,391 --> 00:26:01,433
the once-select nuclear
community in self-defense
316
00:26:01,601 --> 00:26:04,270
and warned,
"Membership of the nuclear club
317
00:26:04,437 --> 00:26:06,522
will not stop at six. "
318
00:26:06,690 --> 00:26:09,233
One prime minister of Pakistan
said that Pakistan
319
00:26:09,401 --> 00:26:11,527
would build a nuclear weapon
even if it meant
320
00:26:11,695 --> 00:26:12,903
that the people had to eat grass.
321
00:26:13,071 --> 00:26:17,116
"We will make the bomb
even if we have to eat grass. "
322
00:26:34,718 --> 00:26:36,719
In Karachi, they poured
into the streets
323
00:26:36,886 --> 00:26:39,555
pulling a symbol of the power
they're celebrating.
324
00:26:39,723 --> 00:26:43,100
The bomb has become a huge
source of national pride.
325
00:26:43,268 --> 00:26:46,312
Total jubilation in the streets
of Pakistan-
326
00:26:46,479 --> 00:26:48,355
the first time
we've achieved something
327
00:26:48,523 --> 00:26:50,733
which places us in the ranks
328
00:26:50,900 --> 00:26:53,485
of very very few countries
of the world.
329
00:26:53,653 --> 00:26:55,487
We were proud of our scientists.
330
00:26:55,655 --> 00:26:57,531
We were proud of our capabilities
331
00:26:57,699 --> 00:26:58,991
We were proud of our strength.
332
00:26:59,159 --> 00:27:00,618
People thought that,
333
00:27:00,785 --> 00:27:03,078
"Now let India do anything
to Pakistan.
334
00:27:03,246 --> 00:27:05,497
Let's see what they do. "
335
00:27:13,590 --> 00:27:16,133
I had North Korean officials say to me
336
00:27:16,301 --> 00:27:18,135
the lesson they took away
337
00:27:18,303 --> 00:27:20,471
from the toppling of Saddam Hussein
338
00:27:20,639 --> 00:27:22,514
was that Saddam was ousted
339
00:27:22,682 --> 00:27:24,600
because he didn't have a bomb.
340
00:27:24,768 --> 00:27:27,478
They were not going to let
the same thing happen to Kim Jong ll.
341
00:27:27,646 --> 00:27:29,813
Therefore, they needed
to have a bomb.
342
00:27:33,526 --> 00:27:37,738
North Korea is scared
of disappearing into
343
00:27:37,906 --> 00:27:40,741
what the communists used to
call the "dustbin of history"
344
00:27:40,909 --> 00:27:42,910
like all their other
communist friends.
345
00:27:43,078 --> 00:27:44,912
And they see nukes
as the one thing
346
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:46,747
that makes them the country
347
00:27:46,915 --> 00:27:49,166
that is taken seriously
by the United States
348
00:27:49,334 --> 00:27:51,293
and the other big players
in the neighborhood.
349
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:03,347
Every country has enemies.
350
00:28:07,394 --> 00:28:10,145
Every country can use self-defense
351
00:28:10,313 --> 00:28:12,940
as a rationale for acquiring
nuclear weapons.
352
00:28:13,108 --> 00:28:15,025
But if every country does so,
353
00:28:15,193 --> 00:28:17,069
it is a much more dangerous world.
354
00:28:27,247 --> 00:28:30,374
When you see
something that is technically sweet,
355
00:28:30,542 --> 00:28:33,377
you do it.
356
00:28:33,545 --> 00:28:37,047
That is the way it was
with the atomic bomb.
357
00:28:39,259 --> 00:28:42,177
The father
of the atomic bomb, Robert Oppenheimer,
358
00:28:42,345 --> 00:28:46,140
gave some frank answers
to important questions in 1947.
359
00:28:46,307 --> 00:28:48,350
I have been asked
360
00:28:48,518 --> 00:28:50,811
whether in the years
to come it will be possible
361
00:28:50,979 --> 00:28:53,939
to kill 40 million American people
362
00:28:54,107 --> 00:28:56,984
in the 20 largest American towns
363
00:28:57,152 --> 00:29:01,739
by the use of atomic bombs
in a single night.
364
00:29:03,199 --> 00:29:06,994
I am afraid that the answer
to that question is yes.
365
00:29:08,955 --> 00:29:10,789
I have been asked
whether there is hope
366
00:29:10,957 --> 00:29:14,209
for the nation's security
367
00:29:14,377 --> 00:29:16,670
in keeping secret
some of the knowledge
368
00:29:16,838 --> 00:29:20,132
which has gone into
the making of the bombs.
369
00:29:20,300 --> 00:29:22,384
I am afraid there is no such hope.
370
00:29:33,688 --> 00:29:35,522
A nuclear weapon, in a sense,
371
00:29:35,690 --> 00:29:38,817
is the most simple configuration
372
00:29:38,985 --> 00:29:40,819
of nuclear material
that you can imagine.
373
00:29:40,987 --> 00:29:42,821
You just bring together
374
00:29:42,989 --> 00:29:45,783
a certain quantity
of fissile material-
375
00:29:45,950 --> 00:29:48,368
highly-enriched uranium
or plutonium-
376
00:29:48,536 --> 00:29:51,955
and if you do it right,
it will explode.
377
00:29:54,959 --> 00:29:57,252
The design of the first atom bomb
378
00:29:57,420 --> 00:30:00,798
was a very deep secret.
379
00:30:03,051 --> 00:30:04,885
In fact, that was a time
380
00:30:05,053 --> 00:30:06,887
when people didn't even know
381
00:30:07,055 --> 00:30:09,056
whether a bomb was possible.
382
00:30:09,224 --> 00:30:12,935
Now the making of the atom bomb
has become much easier.
383
00:30:17,732 --> 00:30:20,442
Those who say
building a nuclear weapon is easy-
384
00:30:20,610 --> 00:30:22,528
they're very wrong.
385
00:30:22,695 --> 00:30:24,988
But those who say building
a crude device is very difficult-
386
00:30:25,156 --> 00:30:26,949
they are more wrong.
387
00:30:27,116 --> 00:30:28,659
Would you agree with that statement?
388
00:30:28,827 --> 00:30:32,329
I won't comment on that statement, sir.
389
00:30:32,497 --> 00:30:35,374
People from the U.S.
nuclear weapons laboratories
390
00:30:35,542 --> 00:30:37,876
were testifying
in a classified session to Congress.
391
00:30:38,044 --> 00:30:40,379
And they said
that it would be possible
392
00:30:40,547 --> 00:30:42,589
to make a nuclear bomb
393
00:30:42,757 --> 00:30:45,425
with all the parts
being commercially available
394
00:30:45,593 --> 00:30:47,636
except for the actual
nuclear material.
395
00:30:47,804 --> 00:30:50,430
Senator Biden asked
396
00:30:50,598 --> 00:30:52,891
the heads of the three weapons labs,
397
00:30:53,059 --> 00:30:55,894
"Is this possible? Is it really possible
that terrorists could do this?"
398
00:30:56,062 --> 00:30:58,522
And they said yes.
They said, "This is something
399
00:30:58,690 --> 00:31:01,066
that we test our graduate
students on from time to time.
400
00:31:01,234 --> 00:31:03,068
We take two graduate students
401
00:31:03,236 --> 00:31:05,779
who haven't been prepared
for doing this.
402
00:31:05,947 --> 00:31:08,866
We tell them, 'See if you can
make a bomb that would work. '
403
00:31:09,033 --> 00:31:12,202
Lo and behold,
most of them pass this test. "
404
00:31:15,748 --> 00:31:18,041
Biden said, "Prove it. "
405
00:31:18,209 --> 00:31:21,879
And so they went
and made a nuclear bomb,
406
00:31:22,046 --> 00:31:25,799
with everything other than
the nuclear material, from commercial parts.
407
00:31:25,967 --> 00:31:27,801
They actually brought it
408
00:31:27,969 --> 00:31:31,263
into the classified
hearing room in the Senate.
409
00:31:31,431 --> 00:31:33,849
Typically, an implosion bomb
would have
410
00:31:34,017 --> 00:31:37,519
something like 25kg of uranium,
411
00:31:37,687 --> 00:31:39,521
which is about the size
of a grapefruit.
412
00:31:41,983 --> 00:31:43,817
If, let's say,
413
00:31:43,985 --> 00:31:48,488
between 70kg and 100kg of H.E.U.
414
00:31:48,656 --> 00:31:50,490
is available,
415
00:31:50,658 --> 00:31:54,620
then the design is not
a major factor.
416
00:31:54,787 --> 00:31:56,997
It would not be very efficient.
417
00:31:57,165 --> 00:31:59,333
It would not use all the uranium
418
00:31:59,500 --> 00:32:01,543
that was used in it.
419
00:32:01,711 --> 00:32:04,630
And yet it could be enough
to level a city.
420
00:32:42,961 --> 00:32:45,128
During my 10 years as prime minister,
421
00:32:45,296 --> 00:32:48,090
what I really noticed
was that it was actually
422
00:32:48,257 --> 00:32:50,384
the threat of the proliferation,
423
00:32:50,551 --> 00:32:52,386
the fact that these weapons could fall
424
00:32:52,553 --> 00:32:54,262
into other people's hands-
425
00:32:54,430 --> 00:32:57,015
that was the thing that troubled me,
426
00:32:57,183 --> 00:32:59,601
that kept me awake at night.
427
00:32:59,769 --> 00:33:01,979
In the capital, Islamabad,
428
00:33:02,146 --> 00:33:04,356
word hit the streets
in early afternoon-
429
00:33:04,524 --> 00:33:07,150
another nuclear device
tested successfully.
430
00:33:09,070 --> 00:33:10,862
As Pakistan celebrated,
431
00:33:11,030 --> 00:33:12,781
the public hailed A.Q. Khan
432
00:33:12,949 --> 00:33:15,325
as the father of the Islamic bomb.
433
00:33:15,493 --> 00:33:18,120
In 1974
A.Q. Khan was working at a company
434
00:33:18,287 --> 00:33:21,331
that was developing
a brand-new process for enriching uranium.
435
00:33:21,499 --> 00:33:23,333
He stole their designs
436
00:33:23,501 --> 00:33:25,210
and took the list
of all their suppliers.
437
00:33:25,378 --> 00:33:28,088
At the end of the day,
he's not really a master scientist,
438
00:33:28,256 --> 00:33:31,174
but he's a master smuggler
and a master organizer.
439
00:33:31,342 --> 00:33:34,052
He knows how to get the pieces
out of the countries
440
00:33:34,220 --> 00:33:37,472
and how to find stuff and buy stuff.
441
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:39,599
There was
this whole clandestine apparatus
442
00:33:39,767 --> 00:33:41,810
that was set up
by the intelligence services,
443
00:33:41,978 --> 00:33:45,188
by the army and by Dr. Khan.
444
00:33:45,356 --> 00:33:47,190
Restrictions were placed.
Sanctions were placed.
445
00:33:47,358 --> 00:33:50,027
But somehow the Pakistanis
got around that.
446
00:33:50,194 --> 00:33:53,905
And the formal help actually came
from India's enemy- China.
447
00:33:54,073 --> 00:33:55,907
China gave a blueprint
448
00:33:56,075 --> 00:33:58,994
of a nuclear bomb to Pakistan.
449
00:33:59,162 --> 00:34:02,080
Somewhere around the early 1980s
450
00:34:02,248 --> 00:34:04,833
Khan makes contact
with the Iranians
451
00:34:05,001 --> 00:34:06,835
who are very interested
in getting a bomb
452
00:34:07,003 --> 00:34:08,837
but clearly don't have the scientific
453
00:34:09,005 --> 00:34:11,089
or industrial capacity
to do it themselves.
454
00:34:11,257 --> 00:34:13,425
And thus he starts
on a commercial enterprise.
455
00:34:14,469 --> 00:34:17,679
Khan has got a full marketing
regime laid out
456
00:34:17,847 --> 00:34:20,599
with brochures and videotapes
to offer his nuclear wares.
457
00:34:20,767 --> 00:34:24,352
It's extremely lucrative business.
458
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:28,190
He had extensive contacts, networks,
459
00:34:28,357 --> 00:34:30,192
and he didn't much care about
460
00:34:30,359 --> 00:34:33,695
who the ultimate client
was going to be.
461
00:34:33,863 --> 00:34:36,406
He contacted Iran,
462
00:34:36,574 --> 00:34:38,658
North Korea, Libya.
463
00:34:38,826 --> 00:34:40,869
But he didn't just give them
the technologies.
464
00:34:41,037 --> 00:34:44,164
He also took the bomb designs
that the Pakistanis had
465
00:34:44,332 --> 00:34:46,625
and threw those in as a sweetener.
466
00:34:46,793 --> 00:34:49,795
He gave them
24/7 technology support.
467
00:34:49,962 --> 00:34:52,547
Got a problem?
Call 1-800-AQKHAN.
468
00:34:52,715 --> 00:34:55,092
It was a full-service operation.
469
00:34:56,594 --> 00:34:58,553
U.S. intelligence
470
00:34:58,721 --> 00:35:01,848
began to focus
on A.Q. Khan in the late 1990s.
471
00:35:02,016 --> 00:35:05,268
The home run was
in December 2003 with Libya.
472
00:35:09,899 --> 00:35:12,776
The C.I.A. and British intelligence
473
00:35:12,944 --> 00:35:16,404
essentially caught
the Khan network red-handed
474
00:35:16,572 --> 00:35:20,826
selling a full-scale
nuclear weapon to Libya.
475
00:35:20,993 --> 00:35:23,286
If it wasn't for A.Q. Khan,
476
00:35:23,454 --> 00:35:25,580
Libya never would have
gotten the centrifuges
477
00:35:25,748 --> 00:35:27,791
that they've now, thankfully, given up.
478
00:35:27,959 --> 00:35:29,960
If it wasn't for A.Q. Khan,
479
00:35:30,128 --> 00:35:33,130
there wouldn't be
an Iranian nuclear program.
480
00:35:37,176 --> 00:35:39,719
Iran is the tip of the spear.
481
00:35:39,887 --> 00:35:42,931
It's the big problem
that we have to solve.
482
00:35:44,725 --> 00:35:48,270
They promised not to build
nuclear weapons.
483
00:35:48,437 --> 00:35:52,065
But the problem is that
the very same centrifuges,
484
00:35:52,233 --> 00:35:54,818
the very same factory
that can enrich uranium
485
00:35:54,986 --> 00:35:57,737
to low quantities for nuclear fuel
486
00:35:57,905 --> 00:36:01,074
can enrich it to high quantities
for nuclear weapons.
487
00:36:01,242 --> 00:36:04,035
So the question is,
do you trust Iran?
488
00:36:06,998 --> 00:36:10,000
By their own admission,
they deceived inspectors
489
00:36:10,168 --> 00:36:14,045
about their nuclear activities
for 17 years.
490
00:36:35,359 --> 00:36:37,819
Without question,
Iran is trying to get a nuclear bomb.
491
00:36:37,987 --> 00:36:39,821
They've made that very clear,
492
00:36:39,989 --> 00:36:42,532
despite their promises
that they are only pursuing
493
00:36:42,700 --> 00:36:44,993
civilian, peaceful objectives
494
00:36:45,161 --> 00:36:46,995
for their nuclear program.
495
00:36:47,163 --> 00:36:49,623
They're really good at trying
to bring things in
496
00:36:49,790 --> 00:36:52,209
that can be used
for their nuclear program.
497
00:36:52,376 --> 00:36:54,878
The Iranians have worked very hard
498
00:36:55,046 --> 00:36:58,256
at disguising
and hiding their facilities.
499
00:36:58,424 --> 00:37:00,258
Many of their facilities are
500
00:37:00,426 --> 00:37:02,761
in crowded urban areas
and underground,
501
00:37:02,929 --> 00:37:06,097
extremely well-protected
from any sort of aerial bombing.
502
00:37:06,265 --> 00:37:09,100
If Iran were
to acquire nuclear weapons capability,
503
00:37:09,268 --> 00:37:11,853
the impact is across
the whole of the region.
504
00:37:12,021 --> 00:37:13,855
You will get a whole set
of other countries
505
00:37:14,023 --> 00:37:17,025
deciding they've got to acquire
nuclear weapons capability.
506
00:37:18,569 --> 00:37:21,988
Syria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt-
507
00:37:22,156 --> 00:37:25,116
the rivals of the Iranian Shia state
508
00:37:25,284 --> 00:37:26,910
would match their capabilities
509
00:37:27,078 --> 00:37:28,828
and we would go from a Middle East
510
00:37:28,996 --> 00:37:31,289
with one nuclear-armed nation- Israel-
511
00:37:31,457 --> 00:37:34,251
to one with three, four or five
nuclear-armed nations.
512
00:37:34,418 --> 00:37:36,920
They are surrounded by
513
00:37:37,088 --> 00:37:40,048
very unstable regimes
and countries.
514
00:37:40,216 --> 00:37:42,425
If Iran acquires everything it needs,
515
00:37:42,593 --> 00:37:44,427
without doubt, pieces of that
516
00:37:44,595 --> 00:37:46,721
become more readily available
517
00:37:46,889 --> 00:37:50,183
to terrorist organizations like Hamas.
518
00:37:53,771 --> 00:37:56,481
The risk that you have today
519
00:37:56,649 --> 00:37:59,985
with a regime like Iran or North Korea
520
00:38:00,152 --> 00:38:03,530
is they are prepared to start trading
521
00:38:03,698 --> 00:38:06,950
that nuclear weapons capability
and technology.
522
00:38:07,118 --> 00:38:09,911
The Pakistanis had the nuclear know-how.
523
00:38:10,079 --> 00:38:11,913
They didn't have the delivery system.
524
00:38:12,081 --> 00:38:13,915
The North Koreans had the missile
525
00:38:14,083 --> 00:38:16,042
and didn't have the nuclear know-how.
526
00:38:16,210 --> 00:38:20,255
So there was a natural convergence
of interests here.
527
00:38:21,507 --> 00:38:23,675
The North Koreans have
a long track record
528
00:38:23,843 --> 00:38:25,969
of selling military technology
and missiles
529
00:38:26,137 --> 00:38:28,179
to the Syrians, to the Iranians,
530
00:38:28,347 --> 00:38:30,682
to the Iraqis, to the Pakistanis.
531
00:38:30,850 --> 00:38:33,059
They don't really have
any other exports.
532
00:38:36,939 --> 00:38:39,691
Daily life is very grim.
533
00:38:39,859 --> 00:38:41,818
Food is in short supply.
534
00:38:41,986 --> 00:38:44,571
You drive around
the capital Pyongyang at night,
535
00:38:44,739 --> 00:38:46,364
and it's basically dark.
536
00:38:46,532 --> 00:38:48,366
There's a famous satellite photo
537
00:38:48,534 --> 00:38:50,869
that shows
the Korean peninsula.
538
00:38:51,037 --> 00:38:53,246
And in the South you see
all these lights,
539
00:38:53,414 --> 00:38:56,750
and then it's just black.
540
00:38:58,419 --> 00:39:01,212
We are still dealing with
541
00:39:01,380 --> 00:39:05,050
his years of unchecked activity
and contacts.
542
00:39:05,217 --> 00:39:08,720
And it really is
a genie out of the bottle
543
00:39:08,888 --> 00:39:12,640
that cannot be easily put back.
544
00:39:25,780 --> 00:39:27,947
We've spent billions of dollars
545
00:39:28,115 --> 00:39:30,867
putting in radiation detectors,
546
00:39:31,035 --> 00:39:35,246
but highly-enriched uranium
is easily shielded.
547
00:39:37,541 --> 00:39:40,752
If you are depending
on portal monitors
548
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:44,506
to defend a city
against a nuclear detonation,
549
00:39:44,673 --> 00:39:48,343
you have done
far too much too late.
550
00:39:48,511 --> 00:39:51,471
Nuclear weapons
551
00:39:51,639 --> 00:39:54,099
don't have to be exactly on target.
552
00:39:54,266 --> 00:39:56,142
Close is good enough.
553
00:39:56,310 --> 00:39:59,687
If a terrorist thinks that the portal monitor
might detect the weapon,
554
00:39:59,855 --> 00:40:01,898
they set it off in the port.
555
00:40:03,776 --> 00:40:06,444
Highly-enriched uranium
is easy to smuggle.
556
00:40:06,612 --> 00:40:09,447
The radiation is very weak.
557
00:40:17,498 --> 00:40:20,250
The detectors
that we're putting in place now
558
00:40:20,418 --> 00:40:22,544
would have no chance of detecting
559
00:40:22,711 --> 00:40:25,380
highly-enriched uranium
in a cargo container.
560
00:40:32,888 --> 00:40:36,391
The signature
from highly enriched uranium is so slight
561
00:40:36,559 --> 00:40:39,727
that they have to set the monitors
very high to detect it.
562
00:40:39,895 --> 00:40:44,023
And so they're getting thousands
of false alarms every day.
563
00:40:44,191 --> 00:40:47,819
Toilets will set it off-
china, porcelain,
564
00:40:47,987 --> 00:40:50,447
ceramics,
stone like granites,
565
00:40:50,614 --> 00:40:52,449
a lot of biological materials
566
00:40:52,616 --> 00:40:55,285
like tobacco, some algae,
567
00:40:55,453 --> 00:40:58,371
televisions-
the old-style televisions-
568
00:40:58,539 --> 00:41:01,249
kitty litter,
a lot of chemical products,
569
00:41:01,417 --> 00:41:03,418
and a lot of other stuff also.
570
00:41:09,008 --> 00:41:11,926
You want to smuggle
a bomb into the United States?
571
00:41:12,094 --> 00:41:14,888
Ship it in a truck with kitty litter.
572
00:41:15,055 --> 00:41:16,973
No one would ever find it.
573
00:41:18,726 --> 00:41:22,187
They're great for really radioactive stuff
574
00:41:22,354 --> 00:41:24,189
like cesium or something
575
00:41:24,356 --> 00:41:26,232
that might be used in a dirty bomb.
576
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:29,444
But for the stuff that you would use
to make a nuclear bomb
577
00:41:29,612 --> 00:41:31,571
that would incinerate
the heart of a major city-
578
00:41:31,739 --> 00:41:33,531
they're not gonna detect that.
579
00:41:39,914 --> 00:41:42,373
Robert Oppenheimer- in 1946
580
00:41:42,541 --> 00:41:44,417
he appeared
in a closed session of the Senate.
581
00:41:44,585 --> 00:41:46,419
And one of the senators asked him
582
00:41:46,587 --> 00:41:50,048
if nuclear terrorism
was a potential threat.
583
00:41:50,216 --> 00:41:52,050
He said, "Of course.
584
00:41:52,218 --> 00:41:55,512
Terrorists could bring a bomb
into New York City
585
00:41:55,679 --> 00:41:57,514
and destroy the city. "
586
00:41:57,681 --> 00:42:01,643
Somebody asked him,
"How would you stop it?"
587
00:42:01,810 --> 00:42:03,645
He said,
"With a screwdriver,
588
00:42:03,812 --> 00:42:06,481
to open up every container
that comes into the city. "
589
00:42:19,411 --> 00:42:22,080
Once you've smuggled
the highly-enriched uranium
590
00:42:22,248 --> 00:42:24,832
into the U.S., you will need
a place to build the bomb.
591
00:42:25,918 --> 00:42:29,837
The bomb could be built
right in the target city.
592
00:42:30,005 --> 00:42:33,550
The hard part was
what we did in 1945.
593
00:42:33,717 --> 00:42:37,011
The hard part is doing it
the first time.
594
00:42:37,179 --> 00:42:39,013
This is no longer
a conceptual challenge.
595
00:42:39,181 --> 00:42:40,807
There is no trick.
596
00:42:40,975 --> 00:42:42,850
There is no magic that needs
to be figured out.
597
00:42:43,018 --> 00:42:45,436
It's really just
an engineering challenge.
598
00:42:45,604 --> 00:42:47,564
It's definitely not rocket science.
599
00:42:47,731 --> 00:42:49,941
Rocket science is hard.
|
|
kustor
2012.05.03
|
|
0 0
745
|
600
00:42:50,109 --> 00:42:51,943
You can make a very simple weapon,
601
00:42:52,111 --> 00:42:54,153
a so-called "gun-type" weapon
602
00:42:54,321 --> 00:42:56,447
which was the one used
in Hiroshima.
603
00:42:56,615 --> 00:42:58,783
It was so simple,
604
00:42:58,951 --> 00:43:01,953
we didn't even test it
before we dropped it.
605
00:43:02,121 --> 00:43:04,414
It is essentially
just a gun barrel.
606
00:43:04,582 --> 00:43:07,083
And you have a target.
And you have a projectile.
607
00:43:07,251 --> 00:43:09,752
And you propel the projectile
into the target.
608
00:43:12,756 --> 00:43:14,591
You'll need
an artillery gun
609
00:43:14,758 --> 00:43:17,677
to fire one piece of H.E.U.
at the other,
610
00:43:17,845 --> 00:43:21,097
which would be bolted onto
the muzzle of the gun.
611
00:43:21,265 --> 00:43:24,017
The military sells
these things as surplus,
612
00:43:24,184 --> 00:43:26,102
but they sell them
disabled.
613
00:43:26,270 --> 00:43:28,980
You would have to make the gun
capable of shooting again.
614
00:43:29,148 --> 00:43:31,107
And you'd want
to test-fire the gun to make sure
615
00:43:31,275 --> 00:43:34,444
that it fired the projectile
at the right speed.
616
00:43:34,612 --> 00:43:38,531
This is the only thing
that you would need to do off site.
617
00:43:38,699 --> 00:43:40,533
You would need
a group of people-
618
00:43:40,701 --> 00:43:43,745
let's say,
between 15 to 20 to 25-
619
00:43:43,912 --> 00:43:46,831
who would be knowledgeable
in particular aspects
620
00:43:46,999 --> 00:43:49,917
of weapons design, of explosives.
621
00:43:50,085 --> 00:43:51,919
Two or three people
to do the machining,
622
00:43:52,087 --> 00:43:54,005
two or three people to work
on the gun,
623
00:43:54,173 --> 00:43:56,466
two or three people
to work on electronics,
624
00:43:56,634 --> 00:44:00,386
people who are experts in ballistics.
625
00:44:00,554 --> 00:44:02,472
People who know something
about nuclear physics.
626
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:04,474
You'd need the machinists
and the metallurgists
627
00:44:04,642 --> 00:44:06,267
to make your pieces
into the right shape
628
00:44:06,435 --> 00:44:08,061
and make sure
they all fit together.
629
00:44:08,228 --> 00:44:10,355
Ordinary explosives and detonators,
630
00:44:10,522 --> 00:44:12,982
maybe some electronic equipment.
631
00:44:13,150 --> 00:44:14,817
You could go online
632
00:44:14,985 --> 00:44:17,070
and easily find the lathe for $10,000.
633
00:44:17,237 --> 00:44:20,323
You can find the furnace
for about $50,000.
634
00:44:20,491 --> 00:44:23,159
And you can even find
a surplus recoilless rifle
635
00:44:23,327 --> 00:44:26,371
probably also for $10,000.
636
00:44:26,538 --> 00:44:30,124
More than 90%
of the effort in the Manhattan Project
637
00:44:30,292 --> 00:44:32,585
was making the nuclear material
638
00:44:32,753 --> 00:44:34,962
to make the nuclear bomb.
639
00:44:35,130 --> 00:44:37,507
If you can get hold of
that nuclear material,
640
00:44:37,675 --> 00:44:40,802
then it doesn't take
a Manhattan Project to make a bomb.
641
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:56,693
If the circumstances are right,
642
00:44:56,860 --> 00:45:00,613
acquiring a complete bomb
may be easier than building one.
643
00:45:00,781 --> 00:45:03,116
In Algeria in 1961,
644
00:45:03,283 --> 00:45:06,119
officers within
the French military revolted
645
00:45:06,286 --> 00:45:08,246
and tried to seize a nuclear weapon.
646
00:45:08,414 --> 00:45:10,373
As the rebels closed in,
647
00:45:10,541 --> 00:45:13,251
the weapon was detonated
in a degraded explosion
648
00:45:13,419 --> 00:45:15,586
to prevent it
from falling into the hands
649
00:45:15,754 --> 00:45:17,463
of the rebelling officers.
650
00:45:26,432 --> 00:45:29,642
The Japanese
death terror cult Aum Shinrikyo
651
00:45:29,810 --> 00:45:33,479
attempted to buy a nuclear bomb
in the Soviet Union.
652
00:45:33,647 --> 00:45:36,065
They had a lot of resources.
653
00:45:36,233 --> 00:45:38,943
We're talking well over
$1 billion of assets.
654
00:45:39,111 --> 00:45:41,821
And secondly,
they had tremendous access.
655
00:45:41,989 --> 00:45:43,990
At one point the group had
more members in Russia,
656
00:45:44,158 --> 00:45:46,617
in the former Soviet Union
than they had in Japan.
657
00:45:49,663 --> 00:45:52,540
In 1994 a senior leader
658
00:45:52,708 --> 00:45:54,542
made eight trips to Russia.
659
00:45:54,710 --> 00:45:57,295
His personal notebook
included a shopping list
660
00:45:57,463 --> 00:46:01,215
for buying a nuclear warhead
for $15 million.
661
00:46:03,135 --> 00:46:04,969
A perfectly secure nuclear weapon
662
00:46:05,137 --> 00:46:07,513
is also a perfectly unusable one.
663
00:46:07,681 --> 00:46:09,766
So here one has this paradox
664
00:46:09,933 --> 00:46:13,561
between security and usability.
665
00:46:15,981 --> 00:46:17,815
Where's the most dangerous place
666
00:46:17,983 --> 00:46:19,942
in the world right now?
667
00:46:20,110 --> 00:46:21,944
For my money, it is Pakistan.
668
00:46:22,112 --> 00:46:24,238
You've got an unstable government,
669
00:46:24,406 --> 00:46:26,991
plus enough material
for up to 100 nuclear weapons,
670
00:46:27,159 --> 00:46:30,745
plus Osama Bin Laden
in the country.
671
00:46:39,505 --> 00:46:41,339
What we've seen
672
00:46:41,507 --> 00:46:43,508
over the last two or three years
673
00:46:43,675 --> 00:46:46,844
has been a spiral
that is going downwards-
674
00:46:47,012 --> 00:46:49,764
destabilization,
the spread of the Taliban,
675
00:46:49,932 --> 00:46:53,226
the spread of radicalism,
the collapse of the economy.
676
00:46:54,728 --> 00:46:57,021
So could there be
a colonels' coup in Pakistan
677
00:46:57,189 --> 00:46:59,774
by Islamic radicals
within the military?
678
00:46:59,942 --> 00:47:02,944
And then could
nuclear weapons be at risk?
679
00:47:04,196 --> 00:47:07,865
What happens if that country destabilizes?
680
00:47:08,033 --> 00:47:11,661
What happens if the army splits?
681
00:47:11,829 --> 00:47:13,412
Who gets the weapons?
682
00:47:13,580 --> 00:47:15,373
Who gets the material
for the weapons?
683
00:47:15,541 --> 00:47:17,166
Who gets the scientists
684
00:47:17,334 --> 00:47:19,710
who know how to build
the weapons?
685
00:47:25,884 --> 00:47:28,970
There's no such thing as perfect command
686
00:47:29,137 --> 00:47:31,556
and control over nuclear weapons
687
00:47:31,723 --> 00:47:34,892
even in the most
sophisticated of arsenals.
688
00:47:39,940 --> 00:47:42,692
From the level
of the president on down,
689
00:47:42,860 --> 00:47:44,694
there are human weaknesses,
690
00:47:44,862 --> 00:47:46,779
technical problems,
691
00:47:46,947 --> 00:47:48,948
deficiencies and vulnerabilities.
692
00:47:54,663 --> 00:47:57,874
I was a launch officer
for Minuteman missiles
693
00:47:59,710 --> 00:48:02,795
and spent three years
in Montana in a hole-
694
00:48:02,963 --> 00:48:05,965
in an underground
launch control center.
695
00:48:11,346 --> 00:48:13,931
I was one of the guys responsible
696
00:48:14,099 --> 00:48:16,934
for getting these missiles
off the ground in one minute.
697
00:48:17,102 --> 00:48:20,771
We didn't call them
"Minuteman missiles" for nothing.
698
00:48:29,740 --> 00:48:31,574
When I was serving
699
00:48:31,742 --> 00:48:34,243
in the air force
as a launch officer,
700
00:48:34,411 --> 00:48:37,538
there was a device
in the launch control center
701
00:48:37,706 --> 00:48:40,333
into which 12 digits
had to be dialed in
702
00:48:40,500 --> 00:48:42,835
in order to unlock
the missiles for firing.
703
00:48:43,003 --> 00:48:46,589
This had been installed
under Robert McNamara
704
00:48:46,757 --> 00:48:49,675
over the objections
of the Strategic Air Command.
705
00:48:49,843 --> 00:48:52,094
Since they couldn't prevent
706
00:48:52,262 --> 00:48:54,555
the panel from being installed,
707
00:48:54,723 --> 00:48:56,849
the Strategic Air Command in Omaha
708
00:48:57,017 --> 00:49:00,436
had set these codes to zero,
and we all knew it.
709
00:49:00,604 --> 00:49:03,272
That was the secret
unlock code
710
00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:05,524
for firing our missiles-
711
00:49:05,692 --> 00:49:08,194
12 zeros.
712
00:49:08,362 --> 00:49:10,196
In fact,
in our launch checklist
713
00:49:10,364 --> 00:49:12,198
we had to ensure
714
00:49:12,366 --> 00:49:15,451
that the unlock code
was set to all zeros
715
00:49:15,619 --> 00:49:18,245
before we completed
the launch sequence.
716
00:49:23,752 --> 00:49:26,295
This changed in 1977
717
00:49:26,463 --> 00:49:28,798
when they started using
actual codes.
718
00:49:28,966 --> 00:49:31,968
But until then,
I and one other crew member
719
00:49:32,135 --> 00:49:34,887
could have actually formatted
a launch order-
720
00:49:35,055 --> 00:49:38,057
a completely valid launch order
721
00:49:38,225 --> 00:49:40,059
and transmitted it
722
00:49:40,227 --> 00:49:42,895
to the entire American
strategic arsenal.
723
00:49:43,063 --> 00:49:45,481
It looks like
we're in a shooting war.
724
00:49:45,649 --> 00:49:48,150
Aw hell.
725
00:49:48,318 --> 00:49:49,986
Are the Russians involved, sir?
726
00:49:50,153 --> 00:49:51,445
Mandrake, that's all I've been told.
727
00:49:51,613 --> 00:49:53,072
It just came in on the red phone.
728
00:49:53,240 --> 00:49:54,740
My orders are for this base
to be sealed tight,
729
00:49:54,908 --> 00:49:56,283
and that's what I mean to do-
seal it tight.
730
00:49:56,451 --> 00:50:00,746
Now I want you to transmit Plan R-
731
00:50:00,914 --> 00:50:02,915
R for Robert- to the wing.
732
00:50:03,083 --> 00:50:06,419
Plan R, for Robert.
- Is it that bad, sir?
733
00:50:06,586 --> 00:50:08,963
It looks like it's pretty hairy.
- Yes, sir.
734
00:50:09,131 --> 00:50:11,007
I remember watching "Dr. Strangelove"
735
00:50:11,174 --> 00:50:13,801
and thinking
they had it all wrong.
736
00:50:13,969 --> 00:50:16,303
You don't need to be a general.
737
00:50:16,471 --> 00:50:18,472
We were only lieutenants,
738
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:20,558
but we could've started World War lll
739
00:50:20,726 --> 00:50:22,768
just as easily
as General Jack Ripper.
740
00:50:22,936 --> 00:50:25,438
We could have triggered implementation
741
00:50:25,605 --> 00:50:27,273
of the U.S. nuclear war plan
742
00:50:27,441 --> 00:50:30,026
involving thousands
and thousands of nuclear weapons
743
00:50:30,193 --> 00:50:33,696
fired at the Soviet Union and China.
744
00:50:33,864 --> 00:50:36,615
Stand by. Message follows.
745
00:50:36,783 --> 00:50:40,077
Alfa Tango Golf Lima.
746
00:50:40,245 --> 00:50:42,079
The life of a launch officer
747
00:50:42,247 --> 00:50:43,998
is really kind of Pavlovian.
748
00:50:44,166 --> 00:50:47,501
You have been trained
and conditioned so thoroughly,
749
00:50:47,669 --> 00:50:49,670
you kind of march lockstep
750
00:50:49,838 --> 00:50:52,965
into a very well-rehearsed script
751
00:50:53,133 --> 00:50:55,593
that's driven by checklists.
752
00:50:55,761 --> 00:50:57,845
Step one- launch keys inserted.
753
00:50:58,013 --> 00:50:59,722
Roger.
754
00:50:59,890 --> 00:51:02,224
We would jump up, unlock our safe,
755
00:51:02,392 --> 00:51:04,727
take out codes...
756
00:51:08,065 --> 00:51:10,858
...check the codes
against the message,
757
00:51:11,026 --> 00:51:12,860
then proceed through
a launch checklist
758
00:51:13,028 --> 00:51:15,613
that takes about one minute
to carry out.
759
00:51:17,949 --> 00:51:21,118
Let's enable the missiles.
Program slide switch enabled.
760
00:51:21,286 --> 00:51:22,369
Roger.
- Flight all. L.F. all.
761
00:51:22,537 --> 00:51:23,829
Online code inserted.
762
00:51:23,997 --> 00:51:26,082
Stand by.
763
00:51:26,249 --> 00:51:27,875
Online codes inserted.
764
00:51:28,043 --> 00:51:30,127
Enable switch enabled.
- It's enabled.
765
00:51:30,295 --> 00:51:32,546
At the end of that process
766
00:51:32,714 --> 00:51:34,548
the two of you turn keys
767
00:51:34,716 --> 00:51:36,550
and launch up to 50 missiles
768
00:51:36,718 --> 00:51:38,928
at the Soviet Union and/or China.
769
00:51:54,611 --> 00:51:58,239
Today, the posture
of the United States and Russia
770
00:51:58,406 --> 00:52:02,368
is exactly the same
as it was during the Cold War.
771
00:52:02,536 --> 00:52:04,578
So if the orders went down right now,
772
00:52:04,746 --> 00:52:07,998
20 years after the fall
of the Berlin Wall,
773
00:52:08,166 --> 00:52:10,501
it would take about two minutes
774
00:52:10,669 --> 00:52:14,839
to launch all
of the U.S. nuclear ballistic missiles
775
00:52:15,006 --> 00:52:17,091
out of their tubes in the Midwest,
776
00:52:17,259 --> 00:52:19,093
about that length of time
777
00:52:19,261 --> 00:52:21,178
for the Russians to do the same.
778
00:52:21,346 --> 00:52:24,390
And then it would take
another 10 to 12 minutes
779
00:52:24,558 --> 00:52:27,726
for everything else
that's on launch-ready alert
780
00:52:27,894 --> 00:52:30,312
to be fired...
781
00:52:39,239 --> 00:52:43,075
so that within 15 minutes
782
00:52:43,243 --> 00:52:45,536
all of the forces
on launch-ready alert
783
00:52:45,704 --> 00:52:47,788
would be in the air
784
00:52:47,956 --> 00:52:50,166
on their flight to the other
side of the planet-
785
00:52:50,333 --> 00:52:52,918
2000 bombs,
786
00:52:53,086 --> 00:52:56,589
strategic nuclear weapons,
very high-yield.
787
00:52:56,756 --> 00:52:59,842
And they could kill
788
00:53:00,010 --> 00:53:02,261
over 100 million Russians
and Americans
789
00:53:02,429 --> 00:53:04,597
within 30 minutes.
790
00:53:12,147 --> 00:53:14,398
When we were
working on nuclear arms control,
791
00:53:14,566 --> 00:53:18,068
I found myself in a meeting
in the Pentagon with a colonel
792
00:53:18,236 --> 00:53:20,112
and we got into a short
exchange about this.
793
00:53:20,280 --> 00:53:23,199
And in the context
of this exchange, he said:
794
00:53:23,366 --> 00:53:25,618
"But I don't understand
what would be such a big deal
795
00:53:25,785 --> 00:53:27,870
if there were
a nuclear exchange.
796
00:53:28,038 --> 00:53:30,456
Only about 500 million
people would die.
797
00:53:30,624 --> 00:53:33,209
Life would go on aftewards. "
798
00:53:35,003 --> 00:53:37,379
And I can remember
having a feeling
799
00:53:37,547 --> 00:53:40,758
like Woody Allen
in "Annie Hall"-
800
00:53:40,926 --> 00:53:43,719
"I'm sorry, I've got an appointment
back on planet Earth. "
801
00:54:16,503 --> 00:54:18,337
I don't think that anyone really knows
802
00:54:18,505 --> 00:54:21,423
how many nuclear weapons
there are on the planet today.
803
00:54:23,426 --> 00:54:25,928
I haven't got a-
- Does anyone know that?
804
00:54:27,180 --> 00:54:28,222
100?
805
00:54:29,516 --> 00:54:32,351
Maybe thousands, I don't know.
Far more than I know.
806
00:54:35,146 --> 00:54:36,355
6,000.
807
00:54:39,651 --> 00:54:41,277
I don't know.
15,000.
808
00:54:41,444 --> 00:54:43,487
20,000.
- 50,000?
809
00:54:43,655 --> 00:54:45,781
100,000.
- 500,000.
810
00:54:45,949 --> 00:54:49,243
There's enough nuclear firepower
on one U.S. nuclear sub
811
00:54:49,411 --> 00:54:51,078
to annihilate probably
half the planet.
812
00:54:53,331 --> 00:54:54,873
I've heard people say
813
00:54:55,041 --> 00:54:57,209
that we have enough nuclear
weapons to create a new sun.
814
00:54:57,377 --> 00:55:00,337
It only takes a couple
to eliminate this city.
815
00:55:00,505 --> 00:55:02,464
Do you know
how many there are?
816
00:55:07,971 --> 00:55:11,765
We estimate that
there are about 23,000 nuclear weapons
817
00:55:11,933 --> 00:55:15,477
in the world still.
818
00:55:15,645 --> 00:55:19,231
The good news is
there used to be 60,000.
819
00:55:19,399 --> 00:55:22,693
So we've cut those arsenals
by more than half.
820
00:55:22,861 --> 00:55:25,237
But we- the United States still has
821
00:55:25,405 --> 00:55:29,366
about 1500 hydrogen bombs
on missiles
822
00:55:29,534 --> 00:55:33,662
poised for launch
in 15 minutes or less.
823
00:55:33,830 --> 00:55:37,499
The really bad news is
the Russians have the same.
824
00:55:41,713 --> 00:55:44,173
If the Russians fired missiles
825
00:55:44,341 --> 00:55:48,677
at the United States,
826
00:55:48,845 --> 00:55:51,889
the first warning
would come from satellites.
827
00:55:52,057 --> 00:55:53,891
And they could detect
828
00:55:54,059 --> 00:55:56,226
the flame from the booster rocket
829
00:55:56,394 --> 00:55:58,645
within seconds,
830
00:55:58,813 --> 00:56:01,774
easily within a minute.
831
00:56:01,941 --> 00:56:04,443
Suddenly this early-warning hub
832
00:56:04,611 --> 00:56:06,487
in the United States
833
00:56:06,654 --> 00:56:08,530
would become very frenzied
834
00:56:08,698 --> 00:56:10,532
to try to figure out
835
00:56:10,700 --> 00:56:12,534
whether this is a false alarm
836
00:56:12,702 --> 00:56:14,536
or whether this is a real attack,
837
00:56:14,704 --> 00:56:17,414
and determine this
within 60 seconds.
838
00:56:21,920 --> 00:56:26,006
The president would receive a briefing
839
00:56:26,174 --> 00:56:29,051
from the duty officer
840
00:56:29,219 --> 00:56:32,012
at Strategic Command Headquarters.
841
00:56:32,180 --> 00:56:34,431
That briefing of the president
842
00:56:34,599 --> 00:56:38,644
of his response options
and their consequences
843
00:56:38,812 --> 00:56:42,856
has to be delivered
in as little as 30 seconds.
844
00:56:46,277 --> 00:56:48,570
The president
normally would have
845
00:56:48,738 --> 00:56:50,614
no more than 12 minutes
to make a decision,
846
00:56:50,782 --> 00:56:54,410
and maybe as little as 10 seconds.
847
00:56:56,788 --> 00:56:59,915
I knew
that if the Soviets did launch an attack,
848
00:57:00,083 --> 00:57:03,419
that it would take 26 minutes
for an I.C.B.M.
849
00:57:03,586 --> 00:57:05,421
to leave Russian soil
850
00:57:05,588 --> 00:57:07,923
and land in Washington
or New York.
851
00:57:08,091 --> 00:57:11,260
And I had that much time
to decide how to respond.
852
00:57:37,662 --> 00:57:39,872
The timeline was very short.
853
00:57:40,039 --> 00:57:42,332
He had just a few minutes
to make a decision
854
00:57:42,500 --> 00:57:47,004
how to respond,
at what level of intensity.
855
00:57:47,172 --> 00:57:50,340
Somewhere before the 10th minute
856
00:57:50,508 --> 00:57:53,844
the order to execute would be issued.
857
00:57:55,138 --> 00:57:56,972
Strategic Air Command
858
00:57:57,140 --> 00:58:00,267
probably would be
airborne already by then
859
00:58:00,435 --> 00:58:03,061
just as a precaution.
860
00:58:06,065 --> 00:58:09,401
There might be
a presidential evacuation
861
00:58:09,569 --> 00:58:11,403
so that the president would survive
862
00:58:11,571 --> 00:58:14,865
an attack on Washington,
863
00:58:15,033 --> 00:58:16,992
although I know of cases
864
00:58:17,160 --> 00:58:21,079
in which the president chose
not to be evacuated.
865
00:58:21,247 --> 00:58:24,416
And roughly by the 28th minute
866
00:58:24,584 --> 00:58:26,668
at the latest,
867
00:58:26,836 --> 00:58:31,173
those of us not evacuated
would be dead.
868
00:58:39,015 --> 00:58:42,309
For us it was a kind of suicide duty.
869
00:58:42,477 --> 00:58:46,438
Any missile landing
within half a mile of our location
870
00:58:46,606 --> 00:58:48,607
would probably have killed us.
871
00:58:48,775 --> 00:58:51,109
If we had survived the attack,
872
00:58:51,277 --> 00:58:55,572
we were supposed to go
to a designated rendezvous point.
873
00:58:55,740 --> 00:58:59,159
Our air would only last 24 hours.
874
00:58:59,327 --> 00:59:02,788
So we'd go out through an escape tube
875
00:59:02,956 --> 00:59:04,790
which was filled with sand.
876
00:59:04,958 --> 00:59:06,792
We would have to release
the bolts on the cover
877
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:08,919
and let the sand fall through
878
00:59:09,087 --> 00:59:11,630
and then crawl up the tube.
879
00:59:13,758 --> 00:59:16,468
Our tube came up
under the parking lot,
880
00:59:16,636 --> 00:59:20,264
so we would have to
break through the asphalt to get out.
881
00:59:22,725 --> 00:59:26,478
The rendezvous point
might be 50 or 100 miles away,
882
00:59:26,646 --> 00:59:29,856
and you'd have to walk.
883
00:59:31,818 --> 00:59:34,027
Didn't really matter though.
884
00:59:34,195 --> 00:59:37,114
Everyone knew the radiation
would kill us quickly anyway
885
00:59:37,282 --> 00:59:39,616
and you'd never make it
to the rendezvous.
886
01:00:08,938 --> 01:00:12,316
In 1995 Pete Sampras won
887
01:00:12,483 --> 01:00:15,360
the U.S. Open and Wimbledon;
888
01:00:15,528 --> 01:00:19,281
George Clooney made
his first big movie;
889
01:00:19,449 --> 01:00:23,619
a bomb destroyed
the federal building in Oklahoma City;
890
01:00:23,786 --> 01:00:27,497
O.J. Simpson was
acquitted of murder;
891
01:00:27,665 --> 01:00:29,541
and we also came close
892
01:00:29,709 --> 01:00:32,336
to an accidental
nuclear missile launch.
893
01:00:35,632 --> 01:00:38,425
On January 25th, 1995,
894
01:00:38,593 --> 01:00:40,802
the United States launched
a rocket from Norway
895
01:00:40,970 --> 01:00:43,013
to study the northern lights.
896
01:00:43,181 --> 01:00:45,474
We told the Russians
that we were gonna launch that rocket,
897
01:00:45,642 --> 01:00:49,770
but somebody in Moscow
forgot to pass word on it.
898
01:00:49,937 --> 01:00:52,105
When they picked up
the four stages of this rocket,
899
01:00:52,273 --> 01:00:54,483
they initially interpreted this
900
01:00:54,651 --> 01:00:58,487
as four warheads
from a U.S. nuclear submarine
901
01:00:58,655 --> 01:01:00,781
which we often station
off the coast of Noway,
902
01:01:00,948 --> 01:01:03,075
possibly directed at Moscow.
903
01:01:03,242 --> 01:01:05,911
That fit exactly the characteristics
904
01:01:06,079 --> 01:01:07,913
of the beginning of a nuclear strike:
905
01:01:08,081 --> 01:01:09,915
One missile coming over,
906
01:01:10,083 --> 01:01:11,833
exploding in the atmosphere
907
01:01:12,001 --> 01:01:13,835
sending out an electromagnetic pulse
908
01:01:14,003 --> 01:01:15,962
that would fry all the electronics-
909
01:01:16,130 --> 01:01:18,590
radar, surveillance, computers-
910
01:01:18,758 --> 01:01:20,592
in the country to be attacked,
911
01:01:20,760 --> 01:01:24,262
followed by an onslaught
of nuclear weapons.
912
01:01:24,430 --> 01:01:26,973
And for the first time
in the nuclear age,
913
01:01:27,141 --> 01:01:29,935
the Russians actually opened up
the nuclear football.
914
01:01:30,103 --> 01:01:31,812
They went to President Yeltsin;
they opened up
915
01:01:31,979 --> 01:01:34,606
the command and control
launch codes- the button-
916
01:01:34,774 --> 01:01:37,317
put it on the desk and said,
"We're under attack. "
917
01:01:37,485 --> 01:01:39,695
Boris Yeltsin was basically given
918
01:01:39,862 --> 01:01:41,905
five minutes
to decide what to do.
919
01:01:42,073 --> 01:01:44,491
Fortunately, Yeltsin wasn't drunk
920
01:01:44,659 --> 01:01:47,577
and he didn't believe
what the military was telling him.
921
01:01:47,745 --> 01:01:49,121
He said,
"There must be some mistake. "
922
01:01:49,288 --> 01:01:53,458
Both the U.S. and Russia guide
their nuclear response
923
01:01:53,626 --> 01:01:55,669
with a doctrine called
"Launch on Warning. "
924
01:01:55,837 --> 01:01:58,338
It is the policy that if you believe
you're under attack,
925
01:01:58,506 --> 01:02:01,466
you're supposed to launch your missiles.
You don't wait for them to land.
926
01:02:01,634 --> 01:02:03,844
According to Russian military doctrine,
927
01:02:04,011 --> 01:02:06,471
Boris Yeltsin should have launched
an all-out nuclear attack
928
01:02:06,639 --> 01:02:08,807
on the United States that morning.
929
01:02:08,975 --> 01:02:10,934
We don't know what happened
in the Kremlin.
930
01:02:11,102 --> 01:02:13,520
All we know is that he didn't.
931
01:02:19,235 --> 01:02:21,737
There have been a number of false alarms
932
01:02:21,904 --> 01:02:23,739
during the Cold War.
933
01:02:23,906 --> 01:02:26,908
We've had occasions
when the rising moon
934
01:02:27,076 --> 01:02:31,246
was interpreted to be
a Russian I.C.B.M. attack.
935
01:02:32,915 --> 01:02:36,376
A flock of geese was thought
to be bombers.
936
01:02:37,920 --> 01:02:41,965
A training tape was
slipped into a computer
937
01:02:42,133 --> 01:02:45,427
at our command and control
headquarters at NORAD.
938
01:02:45,595 --> 01:02:47,220
Everyone involved thought
939
01:02:47,388 --> 01:02:49,306
there was an actual attack underway.
940
01:02:49,474 --> 01:02:52,100
A tape was inserted into
941
01:02:52,268 --> 01:02:54,770
the early warning hub in Colorado
942
01:02:54,937 --> 01:02:57,939
that simulated
a large-scale Soviet nuclear attack.
943
01:02:58,107 --> 01:03:00,192
And no one realized
944
01:03:00,359 --> 01:03:02,444
that it was just a training tape
945
01:03:02,612 --> 01:03:05,322
until the United States had gone into
946
01:03:05,490 --> 01:03:08,617
this sort of frenzied
checklist procedure
947
01:03:08,785 --> 01:03:11,661
to prepare for nuclear war.
948
01:03:18,127 --> 01:03:19,961
Airborne command posts actually
949
01:03:20,129 --> 01:03:22,172
in some cases took off.
950
01:03:22,340 --> 01:03:24,591
The president's doomsday plane
951
01:03:24,759 --> 01:03:28,929
actually left its base in preparation
952
01:03:29,096 --> 01:03:32,808
for an incoming Soviet strike.
953
01:03:32,975 --> 01:03:34,684
Senator Charles Percy
954
01:03:34,852 --> 01:03:37,103
happened to be there at the time
955
01:03:37,271 --> 01:03:39,564
and said there was absolute panic.
956
01:03:45,571 --> 01:03:48,240
Another false alarm was caused
957
01:03:48,407 --> 01:03:50,325
by a computer chip malfunction
958
01:03:50,493 --> 01:03:52,327
that generated indications
959
01:03:52,495 --> 01:03:55,080
of a large-scale Soviet attack.
960
01:03:55,248 --> 01:03:58,291
We raised the alert levels.
961
01:03:59,585 --> 01:04:02,754
Crews took launch codes
out of their safes.
962
01:04:02,922 --> 01:04:05,966
They inserted keys into
the launch switches.
963
01:04:09,262 --> 01:04:11,096
Zbigniew Brzezinski
964
01:04:11,264 --> 01:04:13,265
was woken up
in the middle of the night
965
01:04:13,432 --> 01:04:15,559
with the assured instruction
966
01:04:15,726 --> 01:04:17,561
that a nuclear attack
was underway
967
01:04:17,728 --> 01:04:19,938
and he had to go wake up
President Carter.
968
01:04:21,816 --> 01:04:23,775
There was eight minutes' worth
969
01:04:23,943 --> 01:04:26,486
of nuclear launch preparations
970
01:04:26,654 --> 01:04:28,697
that were triggered
971
01:04:28,865 --> 01:04:31,032
by a malfunctioning computer chip
972
01:04:31,200 --> 01:04:33,743
that cost less than a dollar.
973
01:04:35,872 --> 01:04:39,040
You know,
having missiles on hair trigger
974
01:04:39,208 --> 01:04:41,376
is an accident waiting to happen.
975
01:04:41,544 --> 01:04:45,964
You know, as Fermi said about physics,
976
01:04:46,132 --> 01:04:49,509
"What isn't forbidden is compulsory,"
977
01:04:49,677 --> 01:04:52,637
will eventually happen.
978
01:04:52,805 --> 01:04:55,557
There's nothing that makes
979
01:04:55,725 --> 01:04:58,101
the launch
of nuclear weapons impossible.
980
01:04:58,269 --> 01:05:00,812
If the probability isn't zero,
981
01:05:00,980 --> 01:05:03,148
it will happen.
982
01:05:56,285 --> 01:05:58,244
Right now the world has a policy
983
01:05:58,412 --> 01:06:00,330
that is based heavily
on technology denial-
984
01:06:00,498 --> 01:06:02,999
you keep something secret
and you call it a day.
985
01:06:03,167 --> 01:06:05,794
But secrecy has a half-life.
986
01:06:05,962 --> 01:06:08,380
Things leak out.
987
01:06:08,547 --> 01:06:12,342
Centrifuges happen to be
the technology
988
01:06:12,510 --> 01:06:15,470
that is going to change the game.
989
01:06:15,638 --> 01:06:18,556
They are going to democratize
990
01:06:18,724 --> 01:06:22,602
the process of building
nuclear weapons.
991
01:06:22,770 --> 01:06:26,106
Uranium exists everywhere on earth.
992
01:06:26,273 --> 01:06:29,025
It's more common than tin.
993
01:06:31,070 --> 01:06:34,489
99.3% of all uranium
is uranium 238,
994
01:06:34,657 --> 01:06:37,575
the isotope that cannot be
used for nuclear weapons.
995
01:06:37,743 --> 01:06:41,079
It's that 0.7% that you need
to separate out.
996
01:06:43,749 --> 01:06:47,377
A centrifuge- it's basically a tube.
997
01:06:47,545 --> 01:06:49,671
It spins the uranium
in gas form
998
01:06:49,839 --> 01:06:53,758
and it pushes
the heavier atoms towards the wall
999
01:06:53,926 --> 01:06:55,760
and the lighter atoms
towards the center.
1000
01:06:55,928 --> 01:06:58,346
And then you can skim off
the light atoms.
1001
01:07:02,226 --> 01:07:06,062
And you do this over
and over and over again
1002
01:07:06,230 --> 01:07:09,024
many dozens of times
1003
01:07:09,191 --> 01:07:11,067
and eventually you purify it
1004
01:07:11,235 --> 01:07:13,278
to a level that you can
use in a bomb.
1005
01:07:16,615 --> 01:07:19,534
The common wisdom is
that they're very complicated-
1006
01:07:22,163 --> 01:07:24,330
technologies that take
countries decades to build
1007
01:07:24,498 --> 01:07:26,583
and are the highest achievements.
1008
01:07:26,751 --> 01:07:28,710
But the fact is that centrifuges are
1009
01:07:28,878 --> 01:07:30,712
1950s technology.
1010
01:07:30,880 --> 01:07:34,174
And this is 2010.
1011
01:07:34,341 --> 01:07:36,718
Enriching uranium is still
1012
01:07:36,886 --> 01:07:38,720
beyond the reach of the individual.
1013
01:07:38,888 --> 01:07:40,722
It's a logistical feat,
1014
01:07:40,890 --> 01:07:42,724
requiring thousands of centrifuges
1015
01:07:42,892 --> 01:07:45,769
working for months or years.
1016
01:07:45,936 --> 01:07:47,937
But highly-enriched uranium
1017
01:07:48,105 --> 01:07:50,982
is now within the grasp
of really any country.
1018
01:07:51,150 --> 01:07:52,984
And once you have the H.E.U.,
1019
01:07:53,152 --> 01:07:55,653
making a crude bomb is easy.
1020
01:08:33,776 --> 01:08:36,820
We're not just discussing limits
1021
01:08:36,987 --> 01:08:39,781
on a further increase
of nuclear weapons.
1022
01:08:39,949 --> 01:08:43,034
We seek instead
to reduce their number.
1023
01:08:43,202 --> 01:08:47,205
We seek the total elimination one day
1024
01:08:47,373 --> 01:08:50,416
of nuclear weapons
from the face of the earth.
1025
01:10:47,284 --> 01:10:50,161
10, nine, eight,
1026
01:10:50,329 --> 01:10:52,997
seven, six, five,
1027
01:10:53,165 --> 01:10:57,293
four, three, two, one!
1028
01:11:12,518 --> 01:11:14,852
Happy New Year, man!
1029
01:11:18,107 --> 01:11:21,192
Happy New Year! Love you all!
1030
01:11:37,084 --> 01:11:39,585
In the first millionth of a second,
1031
01:11:39,753 --> 01:11:42,714
the fireball is 500' across.
1032
01:11:42,881 --> 01:11:44,716
Within 10 seconds,
1033
01:11:44,883 --> 01:11:47,260
it would grow to over one mile.
1034
01:11:47,428 --> 01:11:50,346
The temperature
would rise to 20,000,000ᵒF-
1035
01:11:50,514 --> 01:11:52,515
hotter than the surface of the sun.
1036
01:11:52,683 --> 01:11:54,517
The blast would generate winds
1037
01:11:54,685 --> 01:11:57,103
in excess of 650mph.
1038
01:11:57,271 --> 01:11:59,147
Forces of that magnitude can destroy
1039
01:11:59,315 --> 01:12:01,357
anything that people can build.
1040
01:12:01,525 --> 01:12:03,985
The strongest buildings
would be reduced to rubble.
1041
01:12:04,153 --> 01:12:06,321
Tens of square blocks
1042
01:12:06,488 --> 01:12:09,449
would just be melted,
would just be evaporated.
1043
01:12:09,616 --> 01:12:11,909
Everything would be vaporized-
1044
01:12:12,077 --> 01:12:14,370
the buildings, the cars,
1045
01:12:14,538 --> 01:12:17,248
the trees, the people,
1046
01:12:17,416 --> 01:12:19,792
the upper level of the earth itself.
1047
01:12:32,348 --> 01:12:35,767
There were
76,000 buildings in Hiroshima.
1048
01:12:35,934 --> 01:12:38,227
70,000 of them
were destroyed.
1049
01:12:38,395 --> 01:12:40,229
The hospitals,
the fire stations,
1050
01:12:40,397 --> 01:12:43,274
the communication equipment
the military installations-
1051
01:12:43,442 --> 01:12:45,276
everything just flattened.
1052
01:12:45,444 --> 01:12:47,403
In the first five to six miles,
1053
01:12:47,571 --> 01:12:51,407
virtually everyone
in that five-mile radius is going to die.
1054
01:12:51,575 --> 01:12:53,701
Somewhere between
three and four million people
1055
01:12:53,869 --> 01:12:56,496
dead immediately
in the first five miles.
1056
01:12:56,663 --> 01:12:58,498
If you're lucky enough
1057
01:12:58,665 --> 01:13:00,500
to be eight or nine miles
away from the blast,
1058
01:13:00,667 --> 01:13:02,335
then you would experience it
1059
01:13:02,503 --> 01:13:04,837
as blast effects-
windows being shattered.
1060
01:13:05,005 --> 01:13:06,839
Enough to shatter every window
1061
01:13:07,007 --> 01:13:09,300
and turn it into hundreds
of missiles flying outward
1062
01:13:09,468 --> 01:13:11,928
from the center of the explosion
at speeds more than 100mph.
1063
01:13:12,096 --> 01:13:14,013
After the blast, it's the firestorm
1064
01:13:14,181 --> 01:13:16,015
that would just combust
everything in sight.
1065
01:13:16,183 --> 01:13:18,017
Everything flammable would burn.
1066
01:13:18,185 --> 01:13:20,228
Paper, cardboard, cloth,
1067
01:13:20,396 --> 01:13:22,522
heating oil, gasoline-
everything would ignite.
1068
01:13:22,689 --> 01:13:24,649
Whole blocks would catch fire.
1069
01:13:24,817 --> 01:13:26,984
Hundreds of thousands
of fires would coalesce
1070
01:13:27,152 --> 01:13:29,612
into a giant firestorm 11 miles across.
1071
01:13:29,780 --> 01:13:32,031
Everything catches on fire.
Then there's no air to breathe.
1072
01:13:32,199 --> 01:13:35,493
All the oxygen would
be consumed and everyone would die.
1073
01:13:37,746 --> 01:13:39,705
It is useless to talk about-
1074
01:13:39,873 --> 01:13:41,874
will you die because
you're burned to death
1075
01:13:42,042 --> 01:13:44,794
or because you've been blown
to bits by the blast?
1076
01:13:44,962 --> 01:13:46,796
Anyone looking in the direction
1077
01:13:46,964 --> 01:13:48,840
of the nuclear explosion-
they will be blinded.
1078
01:13:49,007 --> 01:13:51,384
Lungs or eardrums
ruptured by the pressure,
1079
01:13:51,552 --> 01:13:53,845
crush injuries from buildings
falling onto them,
1080
01:13:54,012 --> 01:13:56,931
broken bones when they've been
thrown through the air against buildings.
1081
01:13:57,099 --> 01:13:58,933
Hundreds of thousands,
possibly even millions,
1082
01:13:59,101 --> 01:14:00,893
would die from the fallout.
1083
01:14:01,061 --> 01:14:04,605
The body does have
a repair rate for radiation.
1084
01:14:04,773 --> 01:14:07,733
But the doses are so heavy
and coming so quickly
1085
01:14:07,901 --> 01:14:09,902
that it will overwhelm
the body's repair mechanisms.
1086
01:14:10,070 --> 01:14:12,655
The 450 to 700 RAD dose kills you
1087
01:14:12,823 --> 01:14:14,866
because it wipes out
your blood cells.
1088
01:14:15,033 --> 01:14:18,619
Over 3000 RADs-
you will go into seizures, immediate coma,
1089
01:14:18,787 --> 01:14:21,706
and you will die within a matter
of minutes to hours.
1090
01:14:21,874 --> 01:14:23,791
Most of the doctors are gonna be dead.
1091
01:14:23,959 --> 01:14:25,460
Most of the nurses are
gonna be dead.
1092
01:14:25,627 --> 01:14:27,670
Most of the hospitals
are gonna be destroyed.
1093
01:14:27,838 --> 01:14:30,131
Huge numbers of casualties
and no medical equipment.
1094
01:14:30,299 --> 01:14:32,216
There will be a need for antibiotics-
1095
01:14:32,384 --> 01:14:34,135
tens of units of blood per person.
1096
01:14:34,303 --> 01:14:36,137
There won't be any electrical power.
1097
01:14:36,305 --> 01:14:38,264
Vast amounts of intravenous fluid
1098
01:14:38,432 --> 01:14:40,224
to sustain people who've been
burned- just burned.
1099
01:14:40,392 --> 01:14:42,435
You couldn't treat all the burn victims.
1100
01:14:42,603 --> 01:14:44,937
And then at a certain point
the casualties become so high,
1101
01:14:45,105 --> 01:14:47,982
it's pointless to try to make
any sense out of it.
1102
01:14:48,150 --> 01:14:50,568
The doctor in the Red Cross hospital
1103
01:14:50,736 --> 01:14:52,570
who turns into an automaton,
1104
01:14:52,738 --> 01:14:55,323
binding, swabbing, daubing,
1105
01:14:55,491 --> 01:14:57,950
binding, swabbing,
daubing.
1106
01:14:58,118 --> 01:15:01,412
And that's what descended
on the physicians and nurses
1107
01:15:01,580 --> 01:15:03,748
in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
1108
01:15:03,916 --> 01:15:06,542
Someone would
surely claim they had 10 more
1109
01:15:06,710 --> 01:15:09,128
that were already hidden somewhere
1110
01:15:09,296 --> 01:15:11,839
and they'd start setting them off
unless their demands were met.
1111
01:15:12,007 --> 01:15:14,467
Every other big city is gonna wonder
1112
01:15:14,635 --> 01:15:16,469
whether they might be a target.
1113
01:15:16,637 --> 01:15:18,888
Public panic,
people fleeing major cities.
1114
01:15:19,056 --> 01:15:21,641
You could forget about rules
about search and seizure.
1115
01:15:21,808 --> 01:15:23,976
You're gonna have to be
searching everywhere.
1116
01:15:24,144 --> 01:15:26,521
You can forget about civil liberties
1117
01:15:26,688 --> 01:15:29,273
when people realize
a whole city was just destroyed.
1118
01:15:29,441 --> 01:15:32,193
You'd take the Bill of Rights,
you'd put it up on a shelf,
1119
01:15:32,361 --> 01:15:34,070
and you might never see it again.
1120
01:15:34,238 --> 01:15:36,280
People would be demanding
draconian measures
1121
01:15:36,448 --> 01:15:40,076
to make sure
that another city didn't go up.
1122
01:16:10,399 --> 01:16:13,651
A few people laughed.
1123
01:16:13,819 --> 01:16:16,862
A few people cried.
1124
01:16:17,030 --> 01:16:19,365
Most people were silent.
1125
01:16:22,744 --> 01:16:25,413
I remembered the line
1126
01:16:25,581 --> 01:16:28,874
from the Hindu scripture,
the Bhagavad Gita-
1127
01:16:31,253 --> 01:16:34,964
Vishnu
1128
01:16:35,132 --> 01:16:37,925
is trying to persuade the prince
1129
01:16:38,093 --> 01:16:41,304
that he should do his duty
1130
01:16:41,471 --> 01:16:44,015
and to impress him
1131
01:16:44,182 --> 01:16:47,476
takes on his multiarmed form
1132
01:16:47,644 --> 01:16:49,937
and says,
1133
01:16:50,105 --> 01:16:51,939
"Now I am become Death,
1134
01:16:52,107 --> 01:16:54,900
the destroyer of worlds. "
1135
01:17:17,716 --> 01:17:20,676
Every man, woman, and child
1136
01:17:20,844 --> 01:17:24,472
lives under
a nuclear sword of Damocles,
1137
01:17:24,640 --> 01:17:27,683
hanging by the slenderest of threads
1138
01:17:27,851 --> 01:17:30,478
capable of being cut at any moment
1139
01:17:30,646 --> 01:17:34,815
by accident or miscalculation
or by madness.
1140
01:17:34,983 --> 01:17:38,027
The weapons of war
must be abolished
1141
01:17:38,195 --> 01:17:41,197
before they abolish us.
1142
01:17:55,295 --> 01:17:58,047
The Cuban Missile Crisis endangered
1143
01:17:58,215 --> 01:18:00,966
the very existence of our nation.
1144
01:18:01,134 --> 01:18:04,637
We came that close to nuclear war.
1145
01:18:07,891 --> 01:18:11,018
Neither the Soviets nor we, the U.S.,
1146
01:18:11,186 --> 01:18:14,772
intended to put our nations at that risk.
1147
01:18:14,940 --> 01:18:19,276
And the next time
we may not be so lucky.
1148
01:18:19,444 --> 01:18:23,614
They kill by the millions.
They kill in numbers
1149
01:18:23,782 --> 01:18:25,616
that the human imagination
1150
01:18:25,784 --> 01:18:28,411
simply cannot comprehend.
1151
01:18:28,578 --> 01:18:31,080
I used to think,
"Well, we possess nuclear weapons
1152
01:18:31,248 --> 01:18:33,165
in order to prevent their use. "
1153
01:18:33,333 --> 01:18:35,167
We now know we live in a world in which
1154
01:18:35,335 --> 01:18:37,545
if we possess them,
1155
01:18:37,713 --> 01:18:40,506
if anyone possesses them,
they will be used.
1156
01:18:40,674 --> 01:18:44,510
I don't see any good that a nuclear weapon
could do or bring to the world.
1157
01:18:44,678 --> 01:18:46,554
In my opinion, you can forget them.
1158
01:18:46,722 --> 01:18:49,056
I think they should be destroyed.
1159
01:18:49,224 --> 01:18:50,975
I think we'd be better off without 'em.
1160
01:18:51,143 --> 01:18:52,977
There's 183 countries in the world
1161
01:18:53,145 --> 01:18:54,979
that do not have nuclear weapons.
1162
01:18:55,147 --> 01:18:57,815
Many of these countries
could have nuclear weapons.
1163
01:18:57,983 --> 01:18:59,984
They've chosen not to.
1164
01:19:01,361 --> 01:19:03,195
We have decided
1165
01:19:03,363 --> 01:19:05,990
to take a 180ᵒ turn in South Africa.
1166
01:19:06,158 --> 01:19:09,118
When I became president,
I was then informed
1167
01:19:09,286 --> 01:19:11,954
that we had completed six devices
1168
01:19:12,122 --> 01:19:14,999
more or less comparable to the bombs
1169
01:19:15,167 --> 01:19:17,710
which were actually used at Hiroshima.
1170
01:19:17,878 --> 01:19:20,045
I indicated
1171
01:19:20,213 --> 01:19:22,923
that I would like us
to stop this program
1172
01:19:23,091 --> 01:19:26,218
and to become part
of the mainstream in the world again.
1173
01:19:26,386 --> 01:19:28,471
The only way to eliminate
1174
01:19:28,638 --> 01:19:30,681
the threat of nuclear terrorism
1175
01:19:30,849 --> 01:19:33,309
is to eliminate all nuclear weapons
in all countries.
1176
01:19:33,477 --> 01:19:36,312
We've got to ensure that never once
1177
01:19:36,480 --> 01:19:38,314
do terrorists succeed
1178
01:19:38,482 --> 01:19:40,775
in detonating a nuclear weapon.
1179
01:19:40,942 --> 01:19:43,694
When you think about nuclear security,
1180
01:19:43,862 --> 01:19:45,780
it's all about the material.
1181
01:19:45,947 --> 01:19:47,782
The simple physical fact is
1182
01:19:47,949 --> 01:19:50,409
that if you don't have
fissile material-
1183
01:19:50,577 --> 01:19:53,287
either highly-enriched uranium
or plutonium, for example-
1184
01:19:53,455 --> 01:19:55,664
then you cannot have
a nuclear weapon.
1185
01:19:55,832 --> 01:19:59,502
The focus is all about the material.
1186
01:19:59,669 --> 01:20:01,629
Stop making new material.
1187
01:20:01,797 --> 01:20:04,965
Secure the material where
you know it is around the world.
1188
01:20:05,133 --> 01:20:08,177
And make sure that you detect
illicit transfer of the material.
1189
01:20:08,345 --> 01:20:11,263
And then start getting rid
of the material you have.
1190
01:20:11,431 --> 01:20:15,476
Today in the world
we have about 1700 tons of H.E.U.
1191
01:20:15,644 --> 01:20:17,895
So that's enough material
for, you know,
1192
01:20:18,063 --> 01:20:20,648
on the order of
50,000 to 100,000 weapons
1193
01:20:20,816 --> 01:20:22,650
and to really create
1194
01:20:22,818 --> 01:20:25,319
a truly international system
for these facilities.
1195
01:20:25,487 --> 01:20:27,321
International fuel banks
1196
01:20:27,489 --> 01:20:29,448
or international reprocessing centers-
1197
01:20:29,616 --> 01:20:31,408
that'd be a much safer world.
1198
01:20:31,576 --> 01:20:34,328
We haven't lost an ounce
of gold from Fort Knox.
1199
01:20:34,496 --> 01:20:36,455
We shouldn't lose
an ounce of plutonium
1200
01:20:36,623 --> 01:20:38,958
or highly-enriched uranium.
1201
01:20:39,125 --> 01:20:41,752
During the Cold War I believed
1202
01:20:41,920 --> 01:20:45,339
in the value of nuclear weapons
to deter an attack.
1203
01:20:45,507 --> 01:20:48,008
20 years after the fall
of the Berlin Wall
1204
01:20:48,176 --> 01:20:50,010
there's no excuse any longer
1205
01:20:50,178 --> 01:20:52,930
for keeping nuclear weapons
on launch-ready alert.
1206
01:20:53,098 --> 01:20:55,224
We can remove
1207
01:20:55,392 --> 01:20:57,601
all of the warheads on our missiles,
1208
01:20:57,769 --> 01:21:00,354
share our safeguards technology
1209
01:21:00,522 --> 01:21:03,148
and establish a joint warning center
1210
01:21:03,316 --> 01:21:07,361
to ensure nuclear war
cannot happen by mistake.
1211
01:21:07,529 --> 01:21:11,532
When I came
into government in the early 1980s,
1212
01:21:11,700 --> 01:21:14,285
the idea that within about 10 years
1213
01:21:14,452 --> 01:21:16,120
both sides would have agreed
1214
01:21:16,288 --> 01:21:19,081
to a 50% reduction
in their nuclear weapons
1215
01:21:19,249 --> 01:21:22,501
would have sounded absurd.
But we achieved it.
1216
01:21:22,669 --> 01:21:24,503
That means a reduction
1217
01:21:24,671 --> 01:21:28,883
of more than 5,000
nuclear warheads apiece.
1218
01:21:29,050 --> 01:21:32,219
We have gone almost 20 years now
1219
01:21:32,387 --> 01:21:36,348
without any really demonstrative steps
1220
01:21:36,516 --> 01:21:38,225
to nuclear reductions.
1221
01:21:38,393 --> 01:21:41,729
This has to be a step-by-step process.
1222
01:21:43,648 --> 01:21:45,941
That's how we did it
with chemical weapons.
1223
01:21:46,109 --> 01:21:48,319
These weapons are now taboo.
1224
01:21:50,447 --> 01:21:53,449
The Soviet Union
imploded when I was secretary of state.
1225
01:21:53,617 --> 01:21:56,577
And we actually got
an enforceable treaty
1226
01:21:56,745 --> 01:21:59,663
where we got Belarus,
Kazakhstan and Ukraine
1227
01:21:59,831 --> 01:22:01,999
to give up their nuclear weapons.
1228
01:22:02,167 --> 01:22:04,460
All countries in the world have to sign
1229
01:22:04,628 --> 01:22:06,921
a legally binding,
1230
01:22:07,088 --> 01:22:09,089
intrusively verifiable agreement
1231
01:22:09,257 --> 01:22:11,091
to rid the world of nuclear weapons.
1232
01:22:11,259 --> 01:22:13,928
The choice we face is
1233
01:22:14,095 --> 01:22:15,763
eliminating nuclear weapons
1234
01:22:15,931 --> 01:22:19,391
or living in a world
with 25 or 30 nuclear powers.
1235
01:22:19,559 --> 01:22:21,644
We can do this.
1236
01:22:21,811 --> 01:22:23,562
There has to be
1237
01:22:23,730 --> 01:22:26,231
a carefully orchestrated
process of reductions.
1238
01:22:26,399 --> 01:22:28,233
The United States and Russia,
1239
01:22:28,401 --> 01:22:30,235
with 96% of the world's
nuclear weapons,
1240
01:22:30,403 --> 01:22:32,237
have to lead the way.
1241
01:22:32,405 --> 01:22:34,281
We're starting in a world
1242
01:22:34,449 --> 01:22:36,825
where there are 23,000
nuclear weapons.
1243
01:22:36,993 --> 01:22:38,827
The very first step is
1244
01:22:38,995 --> 01:22:40,955
to cut those arsenals dramatically
1245
01:22:41,122 --> 01:22:42,998
in the United States and Russia.
1246
01:22:43,166 --> 01:22:46,710
Once you get down to
the low hundreds in the world,
1247
01:22:46,878 --> 01:22:49,713
then you will have built up
the confidence and the mechanisms
1248
01:22:49,881 --> 01:22:52,883
to ensure that you can
verify this process
1249
01:22:53,051 --> 01:22:54,802
so that we can get rid
of the last one.
1250
01:22:54,970 --> 01:22:57,262
None.
- Should be zero.
1251
01:22:57,430 --> 01:22:59,890
I say zero.
1252
01:23:03,979 --> 01:23:06,355
Never have it.
- We'd rather not have them, I think.
1253
01:23:11,444 --> 01:23:12,444
None.
- None.
1254
01:23:12,612 --> 01:23:14,488
Zero.
- Zero.
1255
01:23:14,656 --> 01:23:16,824
No nuclear weapons. Zero.
1256
01:23:16,992 --> 01:23:18,826
Zero.
- Zero.
1257
01:23:18,994 --> 01:23:20,285
No country should have them.
1258
01:23:20,453 --> 01:23:22,204
The optimum number is none.
1259
01:23:22,372 --> 01:23:23,706
Ideal will be zero.
1260
01:23:23,873 --> 01:23:25,541
Zero nuclear weapons.
1261
01:23:25,709 --> 01:23:27,710
Nol. Nol.
1262
01:23:43,685 --> 01:23:45,394
We've taken important steps foward
1263
01:23:45,562 --> 01:23:47,146
to increase nuclear security
1264
01:23:47,313 --> 01:23:49,565
and to stop the spread
of nuclear weapons.
1265
01:23:49,733 --> 01:23:51,567
This starts with the reduction
1266
01:23:51,735 --> 01:23:53,694
of our own nuclear arsenals.
1267
01:23:53,862 --> 01:23:56,196
This legally binding treaty
1268
01:23:56,364 --> 01:23:58,490
will be completed this year.
1269
01:23:58,658 --> 01:24:02,369
The arms control agreements we negotiated
1270
01:24:02,537 --> 01:24:04,913
between the United States
and the Soviet Union-
1271
01:24:05,081 --> 01:24:07,499
you'd think these were
independent initiatives
1272
01:24:07,667 --> 01:24:09,668
taken by governments.
1273
01:24:09,836 --> 01:24:12,254
But the fact is, public opinion
1274
01:24:12,422 --> 01:24:14,381
had a big role to play
in the process.
1275
01:24:15,925 --> 01:24:17,634
President Kennedy,
1276
01:24:17,802 --> 01:24:19,678
after he passed
the Limited Test Ban Treaty,
1277
01:24:19,846 --> 01:24:22,139
and whenever he mentioned it
on the stump afterwards,
1278
01:24:22,307 --> 01:24:24,641
he got thunderous applause.
1279
01:24:24,809 --> 01:24:27,269
And he quipped,
"If I had known it was so popular,
1280
01:24:27,437 --> 01:24:29,605
I would have done it
a long time ago. "
1281
01:24:29,773 --> 01:24:32,107
Elimination of nuclear weapons
1282
01:24:32,275 --> 01:24:34,568
has not yet been agreed to
1283
01:24:34,736 --> 01:24:36,862
by the political leaders
of the world.
1284
01:24:37,030 --> 01:24:40,532
It's a revolutionary idea,
but they can be eliminated.
1285
01:24:45,580 --> 01:24:47,956
We have to change our way of thinking.
1286
01:24:48,124 --> 01:24:50,709
And if we can't change
our way of thinking,
1287
01:24:50,877 --> 01:24:54,755
we won't survive.
It's that simple.
1288
01:24:54,923 --> 01:24:57,174
I've changed my thinking,
1289
01:24:57,342 --> 01:24:59,676
and millions and millions
of other people are changing their thinking.
1290
01:24:59,844 --> 01:25:02,805
And frankly, if you've never
changed your mind about something,
1291
01:25:02,972 --> 01:25:06,266
I say, you know, pinch yourself.
You may be dead.
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Ha kedveled azért, ha nem azért nyomj egy lájkot a Fórumért!
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